Feels like any residual insto loose stock is finding new and friendly L/T homes. Strong techno basing happening atm IMO and we may soon see strong reversal with independent Ark-like behaviour. Punting plenty on it lately. Anyway AGM should be by end May so hopefully they will be out to impress.
CMR share price has been negatively-techno driven from the 3+ bucks breakdown and IMO totally unjustified, hence I expect any recovery will be swift and significant. Prob the most dangerous stock on ASX to short from here on. But u know I am biased and increasingly moreso lately as we IMO approach the final "B" primary lows. Where are those resource upgrade numbers?
PS Cuzo
Privatisation for mine means delist off the ASX and out of harms way and since there is no cash debt of any significance, pay all/most oxides earnings to shareholders (25+% yield pa based current sp?) whilst preparing it for new float on sulphides project say, next to HNC in HKG where it can be fairly valued. Like a complete re-set of sentiment. Some years ago MPI was the only gold producer in VIC as a private company and refloated lucratively on d existing production, so plenty of precedent. U cld time it to perfection and do all kindsa local PR in what would be a most accepting public arena cf to here, again IMO. Meanwhile all the down-manipulation and negativity would be out of focus.
Of course we wouldnt have to worry about such things if we werent now so damned cheap relative to "peers" at similar stages of evolution and hence so vulnerable. Everyone has focused on the piddly Oxides project and forgotten the maingame sulphides which is now into full-swing DFS according to its own independent schedule and with greater HNC input. Everyone seems to forget HNC are solo-paying 15 mill est for the sulphides DFS and about another 8- 9 mill pa drilling / resource uopgrade costs as part of it over next coupla years. Everyone seems to forget HNC will be talking around a billion buck capex on a sulphides "go" for a 50% share and CMR will be entirely free carried if so. So many other things also forgotten during this oversold wall of worry over piddly Oxides which in reality is just overburden to the main game ... but @ 3+ % equiv Cu paydirt AT SURFACE. U dont go spending 150 mill bucks on a (starter) plant if u dont expect it to work. That latest super job description also defines 8 - 10 years worth of oxides est for them who still wonder about size of this cashflow ... and no debt of any significance for CMR to repay.
U know what happens in 2-stage evolutions as this ...... check out OXR and others alike. Analysts look at the "E" of start-up and scale up to est expanded "E" of maingame and usually assign PER 20 on the starter "E" 2 years ahead of the expansion once they see starter "E" figures rolling in. One major consideration NOT to be underestimated is TIMING in line with likely resources supercycle optimum (IMO). Hence the upside evolution has gotta be extreme once starter "E" begins and evolution comes into focus beyond starter. IMO again. Of course put this baby under a different global microscope elsewhere and yr PER figures may also get a decent boost ... same with URANIUM later under eg TSX lights.
Personally reckon the upside now being offered in "C" primary from a (likely) 130 start is probably same kinda order of magnitude as what was seen in its "A" primary to 629 highs ... except I'll stick my neck out (again) and consider logscale in what I personally consider a resources supercycle still to come. In anycase, means I aint concerned about cents no more ... I have share holding targets and now a matter of what its gonna cost me to attain.
Sorry for the detailed thinking Cuzo but its all been simmering in the cosmic smoke since y2003 and nothing really has changed except now we have to contend with broader megabear coincident, which was always on the cards as well. TIMING is everything. And its all personal assumptions / analyses / strategies at all times.
IMBOOC
CMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
