crossing 10k, page-7

A few thoughts.

Although I think the picture is bearish in the longer term, that doesn't mean 2009 lows have to be broken. In the worst case they will be, and I could argue SPX 400.

It is also possible that GannGlobal is correct with their 60 year cycle and this is the exception to the bearish "normal" bad years in "7" through "2", and this is more like 1959 on which was bullish, although there is no evidence of that yet. It does worry me a little that no one sees a very bullish picture. Its hard to with the economic situation but that can be the hook.

We have had a wild ride over the last few years but the "normal" range for a year is about 25% of the starting price of the year. So far we are within that range and expanding to the limits would be 5400 if we just went up or 3800 if we went lower. Maybe we are due a "normal" year.

You can argue EW patterns and can make a case either way for where we are in the bigger picture. 2010 so far has retraced the "normal" amount of 1/3 to 3/8ths of the upmove so no lower is actually positive.

Now some technicals.

If the recent low was a Gann 360 day low from mid 2009 then repeating gives end of June 2011 and 3rd week June 2012.

I have mixed signals for 2011 and don't rule out a big rally even. But late June is not far from Armstrong June low that ninelives is watching.

However 2012 sees simpler in cycles. In fact the first haf of 2012 is lower from both pres and dec perspective and also the typical mid "2" year low. Probably a zigzag low and not unlike the first half of 2010.

Although McLaren calls for an Oct 2012 low, and that is based on 5 years up from Oct 2002 to Oct 2007 and so 5 years down into Oct 2012, we can argue that XJO had a little less than 4 years 8 months up and that equates to around Jun 24 2012 and in line with the 360 cal day spans from 2009.

If this is all too much and too far ahead then forget it as you can be assured I will review till all of us are sick of it :-).