crossroads, page-11

Hi Jt,

Maybe read...Polls

I believe the gap between Barnett's popularity and McGowan has narrowed by 50%.

I guess the original plan for Browse was to process 12 mtpa of gas onshore via 3 trains for 30 bill which might cost more like 50 bill when all said and done or $4,166/tpa to as much as $5,000.

Without clear capex estimates for FLNG it's difficult to compare to onshore plants but I think 3 ships near 3 fields running flat chat could produce around 10.8 mtpa at around $1650 per mtpa (just guessing it's 50% of Pluto) whereby Pluto costs around $3,700/tpa.

However, does Shell even have 3 of these ships around? I imagine it takes a year or two to build just one. And will Barnett let it happen? Doubt it, especially if he wins the next election.

The cost of piping less 15% might be far less than 3 FLNG ships or the cost of Browse.

The big if is the ongoing FLNG costs and maintenance. Will they keep stay relative or keep rising? According to Shell FLNG has higher operating and maintenance costs compared to onshore plants, with very limited operational synergies available for multiple FLNG facilities compared to an onshore plant operating multiple gas trains.

Problem is we don't know what these maintenance costs will be or how reliable production is given the newness of the technology in untested environments.

Browse certainly has it challenges.