FDM 0.00% 1.1¢ freedom oil and gas ltd

crucial fact, page-95

  1. 278 Posts.
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    Sharks,

    I will email you an excel file on the weekend with the production history in it for your consideration. You need access to an information provider such as IHS to get this information easily.

    A few comments:
    1.) On R/P usually reserves are booked prior to first production then progressively as production ramps up. I have looked over many companies and individual fields using this metric and the vast majority of companies and producing fields are 20 years or less. Some outlying companies are 40 years but these tend to be companies such as Oil Search that have a large defined (due to many years of oil production and drilling that has consequently given information about the gas) resource about to enter production. Even companies such as Pioneer and Chesapeake with massive land positions in resource plays don't have an R/P anything like MAD. To this end MAD's situation as a junior oil and gas company with: mature field being redeveloped; ~1000bbl/d gross production; ~14,000 gross acres is not unusual. What is unusual in their R/P......if their reserves are reasonable it should be possible to cite a company or field with a comparable R/P. Frankly I would even accept 200years (i.e. half MAD's number) as an analogue
    2.) Looking through the P&A records on the Texas RRC I was only able to find 3 wells that were conclusively outside the proved area. Not saying there aren't more, but MAD have used non-committal "testing the fairway boundaries" language around dry/plugged wells and not stated conclusively they are outside the proved area. They may be - but we are both speculating.
    3.) Not saying your numbers are wrong, but on a cash basis over the last 5 quarters they have spent a total of $47mln and produced 231Mbbl (assuming net revenue interest of 75% which is probably generous for the last quarter), assuming you are right about capital costs that means opex+G&A+equipment+everything else is equating to $123/bbl - pretty ugly.

    When I look deeper at the reserves (and excuse if there are some small inconsistencies here, I haven't been through all MAD's announcement in the same detail since I closed out my short position):
    They have evaluated 7900 gross acres for their reserves.
    Gross production is 1000bbl/d, lets assume proved developed production is R/P of 10years, therefore developed production is 3.65mln bbl gross *75% NRI = 2.74mln bbl Net. Note R/P should be calculated on trailing 12 months production so this is again generous.

    Assuming this, they have ~100-2.74= 97.26MM bbl Net Proved Undeveloped reserves. From memory the average EUR for a new well is forecast to be 65Mbbl Gross therefore 65*0.75=48.75Mbbl Net. The PUD well count is calculated as 97.26MM/48.75M = 1995 new wells. Given the reserves are attributed to 7900acres that is an average well spacing (assuming all that area is equally productive, ignoring existing and historical wells at the moment) of ~4acres. Extremely tight for a field such as this and making unsuccessful development wells particularly concerning given they are not extrapolating the geology very far. Incorporating failures and existing and abandoned wells it becomes 2.8 acres/well.

    All this assumes all the acreage they have evaluated is equally prospective, if they have written off any areas within their acreage the forecast spacing becomes tighter again!

    I'm not aware of a conventional, depletion/aquifer drive sandstone reservoir being developed on that spacing, is anyone else?
 
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