I agree with your macro sentiment and think that it is bullish...

I agree with your macro sentiment and think that it is bullish for MAY. I also think that rising energy prices will make inflation more sticky, which increases demand for high growth equities as they are often regarded as inflation hedges. So we are both in the right sector to get in at a good price, as it does appear that oil can only go up from here (especially if China oil demand continues to exceed predictions).

The biggest factor depressing the share price is the lack of faith in the ability to regain control of the drilling rig following the drill of this second well for the Cuban Government. MAY needs it back... in MAY, and we want to drill the appraisal wells back to back, which gives the appraisal plan the greatest chance of being completed this year (as the rig has to be returned in Q4, isnt that right?)

The sovereign risk is likely going to weigh on the share price until we have a confirmation of when the rig will be available. This does present good buying opportunities at attractive prices (I am scaling into a position. My sentiment was hold but is now buy considering the current share price). I am concerned about the Cuban Government wanting to drill more wells and would have liked more assurances or something concrete, but c'est la vie a la Cuba. We shall see how it all pans out, but Cuba need to play this carefully, as new explorers will not exactly be keen to do business in the country if crews/rigs they have contracted can be diverted like this. I do acknowledge its for critical infrastructure for the country, but this was likely known ahead of time and probably should have been made more transparent, if only to make the market more aware of potential delays.

I really do think that its time we had our own rig, but this would likely cost circa $20 million, not to mention the cost in maintenance, operation and training the drill crew with the new equipment. It is also risky to use new equipment when the first well was a success with a specific crew and rig IMO.
Following the appraisal, if all goes to plan, riding on the back of positive sentiment and a quantifiable appraised resource size, money should be diverted towards moving towards production. One has to ask then, when is the right time to buy a rig? I would say that we must start producing first and get Errol his 3D seismic, which will better inform how to step out and increase the recoverable resource size. Once we have the 3D seismic back and a drilling plan for the next phase, then we raise money for a rig, which will save the company in the long run.

Just my 2c. I am very bullish for MAY, and very excited to see what will unfold in the coming weeks. I think this is easily the most exciting O&G play at the moment, despite the obvious sovereign risk.