I have read somewhere that systematically buying 12 month lows...

I have read somewhere that systematically buying 12 month lows have a negative expected return.

From a trend following perspective, going with the trend apparently has a slight positive expected return but comes with high volatility.

I am lousy at this trading stuff though.

Put it this way, if MSB has the potential for "collosal revenue gains", why not wait for confirmation? Say it has CSL potential (current value $44billion). Does it not make sense to pay double the current price at $2b to ride a 20 fold return once it is confirmed and hence has little to no risk, or does it make sense to buy now at $1b with a risk of a heavy CR or a phase 3 failure? You decide.