Crunching the numbers

*ALERT*
These are numbers for the US population alone.  So keep that in mind.
(And remember that Mallickrodt is negotiating for the market for ALL COUNTRIES except China and Japan).

The number of cases in the US:
So 22% of the 33 million CLBP cases in US are caused by Degenerative Disc Disease (DDD).
That equals 7.26 million cases.

Cost of treating DDD:
A Microdisectomy or Disectomy typically costs $20,000-$50,000, while Spinal Fusion surgery costs about $80,000-$150,000.

Assuming conservatively that 50% of patients need surgery, we have about 3.6 million cases in the US for surgical intervention.
By the way here is the glaring reality:
"Even with surgical intervention such as spinal fusion or artificial disc replacement, over 50% of patients are considered treatment failures."......UGH!

If we take a very conservative cost of $50,000 per surgery, the market in the US currently is:
3.6 million * $50,000 = $180 BILLION

How much will Mesoblast's single injection cost?
Wait!
Mesoblast's injection is not a substitute for surgery. It IS the cure. It heals the disc. So there is nothing to compare it to. Nada.

So, how much will Mesoblast's single injection be worth?
$10,000? $25,000, $50,000?

At the low end of $10,000, that is 3.6 million cases * $10,000 = $36 Billion.
Just in the US market.

Do I see the value in investing in Mesoblast? Is this considered value investing?
wink, wink......

I am not sure who is salivating more at this point - Mallinckrodt or Mesoblast or me....