Crux 2 was to firm up the 71 mil bbl upper estimate. They are...

Crux 2 was to firm up the 71 mil bbl upper estimate. They are already a long way down from last years SP forecasts on the basis of LOngtom problems.

I think they are now back to an estimate of about 41 mil bbl.

Incidentally, you might note that bit that they put at the end of each report:

"Crux-2 Well Details
...If successful, the well will be the first of six development wells planned on the field to recover an expected 71 million barrels (Nexus best estimate
contingent recoverable resources) of condensate (a high value premium light oil)."

So Crux 2 was not only important for them to get to the 71 mill barrels, it was also the first to be developed.

This is important, because under the deal with Shell, they only get until 2020 to extract condensate from Crux and then they have to hand it all over to Shell. Production delays mean real revenue losses.

I think they are in real trouble.