Hello Steve, I think you have nailed it in your 1st para.. to add to that theme...
Because SHELL / NEXUS have not released what I consider the overdue L-1 logging results update, increases my suspicion that L-1 results are better than indicated. All the current speculation is about “takeover”…but I think the Thursday & Friday higher volumes and SP increase .. just maybe the “cat is out the bag” and Libra-1 results next Week??
What has concerned me is the deliberate ambiguity of the NXS releases....
1) December 08 Open Briefing: Initial indications are that the NET COLUMN OF GAS EXCEEDS OUR PREDRILL ESTIMATES and this will have a positive impact on our Auriga expectations.
2) Libra-1 Report 10: Logging data indicates an approximate net to gross ratio of 80% in the reservoir section. Hydrocarbon samples collected will require laboratory compositional analysis to determine the liquids content of the gas. The results from such compositional analysis will be announced when they become available. NEXUS ESTIMATES THAT GAS VOLUMES WITHIN THE LIBRA FIELD ARE IN LINE WITH NEXUS’ PRE-DRILL EXPECTATIONS.
Nexus’ managing director Ian Tchacos said, “THE DISCOVERY OF A 206 METRE GROSS GAS COLUMN IN A BETTER THAN ANTICIPATED RESERVOIR SECTION AT LIBRA-1 has increased our confidence in the prospectivity of the Greater Crux area and has provided additional incentive for follow up drilling at the adjacent Auriga and Caelum prospects. These prospects lie on the same trend in the AC/P23 permit where we hold an 85% interest in the liquids.”
….Still laboring the point, but if L-1 “Age dating” confirms the Mont & Plov sands, then it of WILL have a major effect on the Probable Reserves in Wider Crux P23… Auriga & Caelum .. and the value of the sell down of P23!
"The M&P formations are not part of the NXS Exploration Estimates"! Refer to the following … As posted(3620204) previously > (From the initial Report from the Crux-3 campaign) …..
10 December 2007
Crux Area Drilling Commences with the Crux-3 Appraisal Well Recent work indicates that additional resource potential exists in the AC/P41 exploration permit to the south and the Libra-1 well is scheduled to be drilled in February 2008. It will be the third well and the first of three commitment wells scheduled to be drilled in the permit in 2008.
The Libra prospect is calculated to have a mean recoverable prospective resource of nearly 500 Bcf and 19 MMbbls of condensate. Recent work indicates that additional resource potential exists in the AC/P41 exploration permit to the south and the Libra-1 well is scheduled to be drilled in February 2008. It will be the third well and the first of three commitment wells scheduled to be drilled in the permit in 2008.
A positive result at Libra will increase the likelihood of exploration success at the adjacent Auriga prospect in AC/P23. Auriga has an expected prospective resource of 1 Tcf and 35 MMbbls of condensate.
***These volumes have only been calculated for the NOME FORMATION (the main reservoir section seen in the Crux field) and DO NOT include additional potential that may be present in the younger PLOVER formation found to be gas bearing in the Crux-2 and Crux-2 ST1 wells. This new reservoir provides additional exploration targets in and around an existing gas/condensate field. The Plover formation could hold in excess of 2 Tcf of gas and 60 MMstb of condensate across both AC/P23 and AC/P41****
Nexus estimates that the exploration potential surrounding the Crux field in AC/P23 and AC/P41 at both the Nome and Plover fomation levels has the potential to contain prospective resources of over 6 Tcf of gas and 220 MMbbls of condensate.
Wider Crux volumes impact; I can't see how following statements agree, assuming the aerial size of L-1 hasn't changed... 1 ) NET COLUMN OF GAS EXCEEDS OUR PREDRILL ESTIMATES. 2) NEXUS ESTIMATES THAT GAS VOLUMES WITHIN THE LIBRA FIELD ARE IN LINE WITH NEXUS’ PRE-DRILL EXPECTATIONS. I think the Libra-1 volumes have to be greater, reflecting greater volumes in Auriga and Caelum...
We have the Proven Crux Reserves and we have the Probable Wider Crux (P23) "Reserves" L-1 as the guide to how much. I think the odds are in our favour of a Farm-out sale (35%) and very much hopefully NOT A TAKE-OVER. Long termers would miss out on the future rewards...
Good Luck SharpE Importantly DYOR!!
NXS Price at posting:
46.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)