crux value after april agreement

Shell have stated that the Prelude / Concerto field size is in the order of 2 to 3 tcf

The AC/L9 Crux field has a proven 2 tcf and the exploration potential in the acreage suggests another 1 tcf in Auriga and low risk

Do a bit of Googling and find Quest Offshore conversion calculator and you will find that 2 tcf gas calcs to approax 364 MBOE
* So the NXS 17% of 364 = 62 MBOE
(This correlates to the NXS current condensate liquids of 65 MMBL)
* Using the indicative $10 per bbl for the current Crux deal gives 62 mil x 10 = $620mil potential sale value.
For Auriga potential:
Using Quest Offshore conversion calculator and 1 tcf gas calcs to approax 182 MBOE
So the NXS 17% of 182 = 30 MBOE
(Compares to NXS stated estimate for condensate liquids in Auriga = 30 to 50 MMBL)
* Again using the indicative $10 per bbl gives 30 mil x 10 = $300mil potential value.
Have not included the higher risked Calium into the value scenario.

The NXS value claim of a $75 mil for 2% of the proven Crux proven resource seems to be correct on a basic cross-check by an amateur.

My best guess, after the agreement is formalized post April12, then a sell down of a larger portion of Crux to a LNG future customer is highly likely.
Just so happens NXS has a Japanese partner that appears to be in this for the long play and it would be logical for them to secure long term LNG with an approved project with known partners.
They currently have 3% of Crux in the proposed new arrangement and taking that to 10% is my prediction.
Shell 80%; NXS 10% and Osaka 10%

1% of Crux appears to be valued at $37mil, so 7 x 37 could net NXS around $260mil from any such deal…

My thoughts ..

SharpE