– A real drama unfolded in the cryptocurrency market after hackers breached the social network X (formerly Twitter) account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and posted a fake tweet about the approval of the long-awaited bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). This statement caught investors off guard as it was expected that this important decision by the SEC would only be published on Wednesday, January 10. The market reacted instantly, and the price of the main cryptocurrency soared to $48,000. The head of the regulatory body, Gary Gensler, urgently published a denial, stating: "The SEC's Twitter account was hacked, and an unauthorized tweet was published. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of bitcoin spot exchange-traded products." Following this message, the BTC price reversed and dropped to around $45,000.
– As anticipation for a positive decision from the U.S. SEC grew, the number of Google search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" reached a record level. Last week, the percentage index exceeded the 50 mark, and this week it hit the maximum of 100 points. Interestingly, the search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" predominantly come not from the U.S. but from other countries. Canada leads with 100, followed by Hong Kong (86) and Singapore (85). Switzerland (73) ranks fourth, and Germany (72) is fifth among the most interested countries. As for the U.S. itself, it holds the 9th place with 39 percentage points.
– SEC Chair Gary Gensler warned on January 8 about the volatile nature of crypto assets and also reminded of the risks associated with crypto service providers. His recommendations followed amidst firms submitting updated applications for launching bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). Perianne Boring, the founder and president of the U.S. Chamber of Digital Commerce, believes that the SEC could delay its decision. In her view, amendments to these applications could be the reason for postponing the deadlines. Consequently, the Commission would need more time to coordinate the changes and might not complete all procedures even by the end of the week. Perianne Boring hopes she is wrong. However, she admits that Gary Gensler and members of the expert commission may have received another chance to delay the final decision. The SEC, she is confident, has enough tools at its disposal to block the market entry of this exchange product altogether and is not willing to give up its position without a fight. Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport, also believes that the regulator may avoid making a positive decision.
– Television host and founder of the hedge fund Cramer & Co., Jim Cramer, stated that the price of bitcoin has peaked and further growth should not be expected. He made this statement at the moment when bitcoin surpassed the $47,000 mark. Social media users and the crypto community consider Cramer a unique "indicator," whose predictions in the vast majority of cases... do not come true.
– Macro-strategist Henrik Zeberg expects a fantastic bull market in 2024. According to him, the dynamics of digital assets this year, driven by the arrival of new players, will be "parabolic." "[Bitcoin] will be absolutely explosive: it will go vertical. I think we will reach at least $115,000. That's my most conservative forecast. The $150,000 level is also quite achievable, and I see the potential for $250,000," notes the economist. Zeberg added that thanks to the entry of institutional and traditional investors following the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, the first four months of 2024 could be "incredibly impressive" for the crypto market. Everyone who did not participate in the first or second bull cycles will now say, "Oh, I missed the first two times, but I will be in this one." However, the expert believes that traditional markets are facing "the worst crash since 1929," when the Great Depression began in the U.S.
– An unknown user sent on January 5 nearly 27 BTC (worth about $1.2 million at the time) to the wallet of bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This sender's address received funds from three different sources, the majority originating from a wallet registered with the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The genesis wallet of Satoshi Nakamoto, as of the time of writing, contains 99.67 BTC, which is valued at around $4.4 million. These assets have remained unmoved since the disappearance of the bitcoin creator in December 2010. Coinbase director Conor Grogan commented, "Either Satoshi has awakened, bought 27 BTC on Binance and transferred them to his own wallet, or someone just burned a million dollars." He also speculated that it might be a form of "strange marketing" related to the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.
– Vytautas Kaseta, President of the Crypto Economy Organisation, has stated that while the crypto community celebrates January 3 as the birthday of bitcoin, technically this is not correct. On that day, Satoshi Nakamoto generated the zero block of the BTC blockchain, known as Genesis. However, this block only served as a starting point for creating the network, as it contained no actual transaction data. The first non-zero block, mined on January 9, 2009, marks the beginning of real transactions in the network, when the blockchain came to life as a functional means of exchange. It's the creation of this block that should be considered the true birthday of the first cryptocurrency, Vytautas Kaseta believes.
– The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the first cryptocurrency represents a "turning point" for the asset's adoption. In this scenario, the price of bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at Standard Chartered in a recent report. The bank estimates that by the end of 2024, exchange-traded funds will hold between 437,000 BTC and 1.32 million BTC. This is equivalent to a market inflow of $50-100 billion. The analysts noted that exchange-traded products related to gold exhibited a similar dynamic, but only seven to eight years after their launch. "Bitcoin will see the same growth as a result of the approval of a spot ETF in the U.S., but we will see it materialize over a shorter period (one to two years), given the rapid development of the crypto market," explained Standard Chartered.
– Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya echoed a similar sentiment, believing that 2024 could be the most important year for the first cryptocurrency. The billionaire noted in a new episode of the All-In podcast that the approval of a large number of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely be a "game changer for BTC." This could ultimately lead to the widespread adoption of the asset. Palihapitiya added that in this case, by the end of 2024, bitcoin will become a part of the traditional financial lexicon.
– Renowned analyst PlanB believes that the value of bitcoin could soon reach a range between $100,000 and $1 million. He explained that he does not expect a fall in BTC price because its level of adoption is only at 2-3%. According to the logistic S-curve of organizational development and Metcalfe's law, a decrease in asset profitability should not be expected while the level of adoption is below 50%. Therefore, the analyst opines, "the main cryptocurrency can expect exponential growth for a couple more years." It's worth noting that PlanB is the creator of the Stock to Flow model for predicting the course of bitcoin. This model reflects the ratio of the available supply of an asset to the volume of its production. Thus, according to this model, the current price of the coin for most holders exceeds the purchase cost, which is a "distinctive signal of bullish growth."
– According to CoinDesk, the 40-day correlation between digital gold and the Nasdaq 100 technology index has dropped to zero. Over the last four years, this price relationship was positive, ranging from moderate (0.15) to strong (0.8). The indicator reached its maximum value during the bear market of 2022. Now, bitcoin has completely "broken away" from the Nasdaq, thanks to expectations of the ETF launch. Experts from Fairlead Strategies, interviewed by the publication, spoke about the prospects of maintaining the "independence" of digital gold in the near future. This nullification of correlation could signify the potential use of the first cryptocurrency as a means of diversifying investment portfolios. "We believe that the price correlation will remain low in the coming months, given the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and the halving in April. Furthermore, risk assets generally exhibit lower correlation in bull markets compared to bear markets," the experts explained.
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