– Investors may not see a rise in the price of the main cryptocurrency to new historical highs in the coming months. Optimism about the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs in Hong Kong quickly dwindled, and bitcoin began to search for its bottom again. Liquidations of long positions reached $230 million per day, according to CoinGlass monitoring. It seems that bearish sentiments arose because the trading volumes of new ETFs in Hong Kong were significantly lower than expected, which led to a capital outflow from BTC-ETFs on US exchanges. According to Glassnode analysts, bullish sentiments persist as the market prefers the "buy on the dip" approach. However, they acknowledge that losing support at around $60,000 could lead to a crash in the BTC price to $52,000. Another expert, Alan Santana, believes bitcoin could fall even lower, possibly to $30,000.
– Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, has allowed for a 25% probability that bitcoin has already formed another peak (ATH) in the current cycle on March 14 at a high of $73,745. The expert referred to the concept of "exponential decay," which describes a process of decreasing growth by a constant percentage over a specific period. "Historically, bitcoin has traded within approximately four-year cycles often associated with halvings. After the initial bull rally, there were three more, each 80% less powerful than the previous in terms of price growth," the specialist explained. "In my analysis, I estimated the probability [of such a scenario] at 25%. However, I trust the report I published in February more. [...] The 'pre/post-halving' cycle construction suggests that the current bullish trend will reach its peak in the range of $140,000–160,000 somewhere in late summer/early autumn 2025," clarified Peter Brandt. Giovanni Santostasi, CEO of Quantonomy, questioned the appropriateness of applying the theory of exponential decay in this particular case. "We have three data points if we exclude the period before the [first] halving, and effectively only two when looking at the ratios. This is insufficient for conducting any significant statistical analysis," Santostasi commented on Brandt's assumption. According to his own power-law model, the peak of the fourth cycle is expected around December 2025, at approximately $210,000. It is worth noting that not only Giovanni Santostasi but also many other participants in the crypto market are counting on the continuation of the bull rally and achieving a new ATH. For example, Glassnode analyst James Check hopes that the BTC rate at this stage will reach $250,000. Even Peter Brandt himself mentioned $200,000 as a potential target in the February report he cited.
– The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has examined the first cryptocurrency and its impact on global markets in a new report. The organisation recognises the asset's ability to positively influence the economy. According to the IMF, digital gold is "the key to autonomy" for many countries in difficult financial situations. The report highlights the growing popularity of bitcoin and its acceptance in various jurisdictions, while the tense geopolitical situation has made assets like bitcoin and gold "more relevant."
– According to analysts from Spot On Chain, their forecasting model, developed using an extensive dataset, takes into account halvings, interest rate cycles, ETF factors, venture investor activity, and bitcoin sales by miners. Using the artificial intelligence platform Vertex AI from Google Cloud, Spot On Chain obtained price forecasts for bitcoin for the years 2024-2025. According to calculations, the price of the first cryptocurrency will be in the range of $56,000-70,000 from May to July, characterised by increased volatility. In the second half of 2024, there is a 63% probability that BTC will rise to $100,000. "This forecast signals prevailing bullish sentiments in the market, which will be facilitated by the expected reduction in interest rates [by the US Federal Reserve]. This could increase the demand for risk assets such as stocks and bitcoin," representatives of Spot On Chain explained. According to their data, there is a "convincing probability" – 42% – that in the first half of 2025, digital gold will surpass the $150,000 mark, as the first cryptocurrency typically updates its historical maximum 6-12 months after each halving. If we consider the entire year of 2025, the chances of growth to $150,000 increase to 70%.
– Cathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, confirmed her long-term forecast for Ethereum. In her opinion, the main altcoin is capable of catching up with bitcoin. She believes that by 2032, its market capitalization will reach an impressive $20 trillion. Based on current values, the main altcoin should consistently trade above $160,000 by that time. Highlighting her views, Cathy Wood emphasized that technologically, Ethereum is more advanced compared to the flagship cryptocurrency. Moreover, at the moment, it remains the most in-demand platform for deploying smart contracts and decentralized applications of any complexity. In March, the price of ETH exceeded $4,000, but this was followed by a deep correction coinciding with geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, leading investors to flee from high-risk assets. Instead, they focused on diversification and began investing capital in traditional financial instruments. In light of these events, the key beneficiaries were the dollar and US Treasury bonds, as well as precious metals.
– Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, expects a massive inflow of funds into the cryptocurrency market as wealth estimated at $30 trillion from baby boomers seeks to enter digital assets. According to the businessman, capital flows will most likely come from them – those born between 1946 and 1964 – through pension accounts managed by advisors. (According to the Investment Advisor Association, in 2022, US financial advisors managed assets worth more than $114 trillion). Yusko mentioned that the introduction of BTC-ETFs has significantly changed demand. However, the full effect of this is yet to be felt. "I believe that within 12 months, $300 billion will enter this area – this is 1% of the $30 trillion. In fact, this is more money than has ever been converted into bitcoin in 15 years. We've only been working with ETFs for about three months, and we've received about 10% of what I think comes into this area from registered investment advisors who control all the boomers' money," stated Yusko, adding that the inflow could potentially increase the crypto market's capitalization to $6 trillion.
– American regulators, according to the administrator of Bitcoin.org known as Cobra, are preparing to impose a complete ban on self-custody of cryptocurrency. This means that US citizens will have to involve intermediaries who will store digital assets. "If you think the government won't come for your bitcoins, you simply haven't paid attention to this," Cobra scares readers on the X social network page. Cobra recently assured subscribers that a split might occur within the Bitcoin community. There are those who want the network to remain unchanged and those who would like to add more features to Bitcoin, expanding the network's capabilities. Cobra is confident that these disagreements could negatively affect the ecosystem of the first cryptocurrency.
– American entrepreneur and investor Chris Dixon criticised the tightening measures taken by regulators regarding cryptocurrencies. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is increasingly suing crypto companies, claiming they are trading unregistered securities. This has caused Dixon great concern. "The US has an absurd cryptocurrency regulation regime. [...] Major industry companies developing blockchain-based solutions face constant pressure. Existing rules encourage platforms to host only memecoins, which can be freely traded on markets without any restrictions, rather than other more useful crypto assets," stated Dixon. Further in his forecasts, the administrator of Bitcoin.org under the nickname Cobra believes that the US authorities are preparing to introduce a complete ban on self-custody of cryptocurrency. This means that citizens of the country will have to involve intermediaries who will store their digital assets. "If you think the government won't come for your bitcoins, you just haven't paid attention to this," Cobra scares readers on the pages of social network X.
– The Federal Court of Seattle (USA) has delivered a verdict in the case of the co-founder and former CEO of the largest crypto exchange, Binance, Changpeng Zhao. It is noted that the businessman was accused of crimes related to money transfers without a license. While the prosecution had requested three years of imprisonment, the defense suggested settling for five months of probation. Representatives of the Justice Department insisted that probation for CZ was inappropriate as "such a decision could encourage others to break the law on the largest possible scale." The defence argued the absence of evidence that the defendant was informed of the illegal activities on the exchange. As a result, one of the wealthiest people in the crypto industry got away with four months of imprisonment. Addressing his final words, Changpeng Zhao acknowledged that he had failed to properly establish a suitable client verification system at Binance and to counteract money laundering during his tenure. Recall that in November 2023, Zhao reached a settlement with the US government to end a years-long investigation against Binance. As part of the agreement, he stepped down as CEO and agreed to pay a fine of $50 million. However, as we see, the US authorities found this insufficient, and now, in addition to dismissal and a fine, a prison term has been added.
Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.
