FAR

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Davy Boy

16,357 Posts.

3858

19/07/16

10:00

Post #: 18304184
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Originally posted by spinner2 ↑

My view is a bit different. I am not blinkered by a share price that is dictated and projected by FAR's current MC. I prefer to view a potential takeover as the opportunity cost to FAR and the predators intent vis-a vis off shore Sinegal.

If we have a bidder looking to take out the COP JV share by taking out FAR the question is not the price they are willing to pay for each FAR share; but rather the per barrel price for a 50% or greater share of off shore Sinegal.

Irrespective of the FAR-CNE interplay needed to acquire the COP asset the crux is the price per barrel of oil in the ground that would be acceptable to the buyer, to FAR and to CNE.

If the buyer is willing to pay $5/barrel to acquire 50% by a TO of FAR and thus a purchase of the FAR-CNE pre-emptive rights then the price would be 32.5 cents per share If it is $7/barrel then it would be 45.5/FAR share.

A bit of cut and paste from my previous post regardin the valuation.

I considered another oil major making a play, which would mean taking out FAR to acquire the 35% COP interest.

This would bring 50% or 280mb of the field into play at current RISC estimates and subject to DOC.

Given the in the ground $(4-8)/barrel bandied around by by the industry I considered a figure of $5 to $7 per barrel as an acceptable expectation.

The minimum range of $5/barrel would give a value of 280,000,000x5=$1,400,000,000/4,300,000,000shares = 32.5 cents/share.

The maximum range of $7/barrel would give 7/5=1.4x32.5=45.5 cents.

Which leaves me comfortable with Malcy's figure of 25 cents or more.

However WPL or any other company decide to 'play the takeover' it should not be at steep discount to the 32.5 to 45.5 values. cheers

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Yes but spinner FAR only have 85 mmbbls not 280 mmbbls. The 195mmbbls is set at a price of ~$2.20 as per the WPL deal 430 million. If you value FAR 's oil at $5 is another 425 million....$855 million to get 50%... or $3.05c per barrel.
If FAR's oil was priced at $10 = 1.28 billion or $4.57 per barrel average.
There is no doubt FAR could be paid a hefty premium to get 280 mmbbls and would still work out cheap for the buyer.
Maths is not my strong suit so be gentle. DB

FAR Price at posting: 8.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 48.5¢		Change 0.005(1.04%)		Mkt cap ! $44.81M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
48.5¢	48.5¢	48.5¢	$10.11K	20.85K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	99195	48.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
49.5¢	2000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	89195	0.485
2	150000	0.480
1	100000	0.475
1	100000	0.470
1	23142	0.460

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.500	35200	2
0.505	18000	1
0.510	12672	1
0.515	120000	2
0.520	149917	3

Last trade - 11.19am 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

FAR (ASX) Chart

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