was thinking about far today, this stock is reely a gamble at...

was thinking about far today, this stock is reely a gamble at the moment, like playing roulette red and black.
say u put $1000 into far and shell does the drilling the shareprice could easily go to 20-30 cents within days or a day. so u are making around 300% or turning ur $1000 into $3000. if shell doesnt agree to drilling it will just as easy go down to about 5c. here you are losing around 50% or turning ur $1000 into $500.
now from what ive heard on some earlier discussion the chances of shell drilling are between 35% and 50%
compared to roulette dont you think this is worth a punt. the worst u can come out of it is maybe halving what u put in, but for the upside it is probably worth a risk.
i am in as i think the upside outweighs the downside on this occasion
this is my opinion only and im wrond 99% of the time.
cheers