csiro: polynovo cost benefit analysis

Of interest to posters here may be the report prepared by ACIL Tasman for CSIRO entitled “PolyNovo Cost-Benefit Analysis”

This report is found at: http://www.csiro.au/resources/pflh.html

While this report is aimed at determining societal benefits to be gained from the commercialization of the PolySorb technologies, it necessarily delves a bit into competing technologies, overall market size, potential market penetration, etc.

One thing stands out from my reading:

Looking at the first application to enter into the commercialization process, biodegradable stents, the report estimates that the worldwide demand for stents will be about US$7 billion by 2010. The report expects significant market penetration over time due to the significant medical advantages the PolySorb stents offer, and the fact that PolySorb is further along the research and trial track than any competitor product. While the process of adoption may be slow, the report concedes that eventually “it is conceivable that in the longer term biodegradable stents more or less fully replace the existing range of stents.”

This application alone has the possibility of generating a royalty flow in excess of US$100 million per year within the next five years, supporting a share price of an incredible $10.

The report also has encouraging words regarding the application of the PolySorb polymers to bone fracture repair, fixation of artificial joints, treatment of damaged cartilage, burn treatment, and more. The very wide range of properties that can be designed into these polymers, including the ability to cure them in situ, creates a situation where it is difficult to place limits on the potential set of applications for which PolyNovo’s materials might find acceptance.

The potential use in stents alone is more than enough to convince me.