. The current PE is nothing like 33% - try 23%. The rest of the...

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The current PE is nothing like 33% - try 23%. The rest of the analysis is similarly naïve. Shares are not bonds, the market as a whole responds to shifts in the bond pricing but while the forward stream of revenues from a bond are predictable from the instant of purchase, that is not the case for an individual company's shares, and certainly not for 10 years out. Bond prices give an indication of direction, not much more, and they are far from "risk free". Your analysis reads like the perfect market theory lectures at Uni from 40 years ago, written and delivered by lecturers that had never actually traded in shares - or bonds. It was wrong then and it is just as wrong now. The market does not have perfect knowledge of 10 years of company revenue stream - it can barely get it right for 1 quarter ahead, let alone years. And that is the floor in the entire perfect markets pricing model.

The fall in CSL is far more about risk aversion in the current market than bond rates. All things pass, and the market moves in cycles, and cycles come to an end - as will this one. The world does not come to an end, the company continues to draw in revenue, nothing really changes in the gradual steady rise of income streams. People realise their fears were not well founded and they regain their confidence, greed and hope once more return and FOMO comes back and the share price overshoots sense again. Your analysis does not have a 10 year life expectancy.