Nobody argues that CSL is not a quality company.But If one looks...

Nobody argues that CSL is not a quality company.

But If one looks at the underlying business profitability
CSL has benefitted from two cyclical historical trends
a) a downturn in the AU$ from around 2014, this trend is now reversing (which will now negatively effect foreign earned revenue instead of being a positive catalyst)

b) reduction in RBA rates down to effectively zero. This effects the risk free return which facilitates the increase in the justifiable PE valuation for CSL. This benefit will now have passed through to CSL, and thus becomes a a serious future tailwind (unless you believe RBA interest rates becoming seriously negative).

Therefore I hypothesise that CSL is at serious risk of underperforming going forwards whilst it's PE ratio re-rates lower.

I think there is a real risk of CSL share price falling to the low $200 level.

Not because of the quality of the company but because it's share price has just risen too far above its long term intrinsic value.

I will wacht with interest from the sidelines