CSL possible pull back to low $200's, page-95

""Okay, if you don't understand widgets, perhaps a fuel bowser analogy might help..?
You drive up to a fuel bowser in your big truck, and you pay for $700 worth of fuel, instead of $270 worth of fuel...
and now your fuel tank is almost full instead of going home montly empty, like you used to do every month.
You don't pay $700 fuel for only $270 worth of fuel.
You pay for more fuel, so you get more fuel."

That analogy might have helped, if only if it wasn't at stark odds with what no one less than the CEO was saying just a few short months ago, during the AGM:






Based on the that, your bowser analogy should be amended to "You pay $700 instead of $270 and you drive away with a tank that is still not filled."



"But if you're genuinely interested in this stock, then you should already know this.
Understanding charts only gets you part of the way.
You need to understand the product much better."


Not sure about your reference to "understanding charts"; I pay absolutely zero attention to share price charts.

Oh, and I like to think I have a more-than-adequate understanding of the company's products - having analysed every financial result and read from cover to cover every Annual Report of the company since the 2003 transformative purchase of Aventis Behring.

But I've only been posting on the stock on this forum for a mere 6 or so years, with this my debut contribution.

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14549761/single





"But I suppose after 25 years of investing in this particular stock, I may be wrong.
Maybe it's time I finally sold the shares I bought at $30, $32, $65, $124, $165..."

Congratulations; you've been a shareholder even longer than me - my first shares were acquired only after the Behrings deal, which I thought totally changed the global industry structure to one that was far less competitive. (How they got it past the anti-trust authorities I still don't know).

Incidentally - as opposed to your inference of me being a chart observer - I am a bottom-up, fundamental investor. As such I closely track the valuation of the company over time.

At your purchase prices of $30/$32, $65, $124, $165, the corresponding P/E multiples were, respectively, roughly 17x (circa 2009/2010), 16x (~2014), 18x (2017/18) and 17x (2018).

Objectively, those are vastly different purchase P/E multiples to today's ~42x level.


.