Credit Suisse has an “outperform” rating on CSL and a $74.55 target price.
In a broker’s note, Credit Suisse said the “IG volume growth holding up but Octapharma’s 10% adds to competitiveness. For CSL we forecast FY14 US IG volume growth of 8% as ongoing uptake of subcut Hizentra offsets heightened competition in the IVIG market.
“ Globally, we expect CSL’s IG revenue growth to be slightly below this due to ASP dilution from stronger volume growth in EUR. Recent FDA approval of Octapharma’s 10% liquid IG will add to what is an already competitive market although this will be dependent on Octapharma’s price point (not yet announced).
“Coagulation factor growth remains reasonable and ahead of our forecasts for CSL. That said we expect pdFVIII growth to fall back to low-single digits, in line with population/diagnosis trend growth, and we forecast CSL’s Helixate to lose market share to Baxter’s Advate. Not surprisingly US albumin growth has eased from double-digit rates back to low-single digit levels sustainable by underlying drivers (i.e. surgical volumes).
“Valuation: No change to earnings; we retain a A$74.55 target price, and Outperform rating,” the broker said
