This stock is very difficult, as it comes priced with a high PE...

This stock is very difficult, as it comes priced with a high PE in a market that doesn't like high PE's. The media is also contributing various 'mudslinging' articles (just search 'gardasil & deaths on Google) - these continually remind us that there are lots of adverse events being recorded against the vaccine - even patient deaths. Various interest groups are also involved (just remember that HPV related cervical cancer risk is related to the number of sexual partners - thus vaccinating becomes a 'moral' issue, as it is seen as an admission of future promiscuity - please note that this is not my view!).

The lawyers would also love to discover a means to get a class action going against Gardasil - as there is a lot of money at stake.

However - the vaccine is widely used, and the majority of the adverse events are trivial. There is no data to suggest that the reported deaths are attributable (as declared by the FDA). It should be expected that in a vaccine in wide use, there will be a natural 'daily chance of death' that is calculable for any age group from the normal vicissitudes that befall us. Some of these will be sudden diseases (Influenza / Meningitis / Meningococcal disease / Vascular disease / etc). What is important is knowing whether the death rate of vaccinated subjects is higher than the comparable death rate of the equivalent un-vaccinated population.

We must also remember that the vaccine will be saving lives, but that those whose lives are saved will never know - they just WONT develop cancer later in life and die. This makes refuting the scare-mongering more difficult, as you cant wheel out patients who have been 'saved' in the defense of the vaccine.

The markets are in panic mode & sentiment is down on the vaccine. This is reflecting back on a tightly priced stock. The risk is that the market may push the price down to a 'safe' yield that is a lot lower than that which we see now. It is going to be very volatile in the short term, and I would guess that there is more downside risk.

As I already own a lot of CSL I will not be buying (I am already exposed to the short term up/down movements), but it is a good entry point into a stock that is at the forefront of medical research.

J.

DYOR