I bought into CSV in late July and started a bullish thread on HC ('so you want leverage?') a couple of days later. SP was $1.895 and i felt it wouldn't be long B4 we saw $2.00 and higher. SP rose steadily reaching 1.96 mid-august. Then sellers appeared and SP drifted down with moderate vols but no announcement. Then on 26/08 small release from CSV stated a that Fujie had terminated their contract re QLD with CSV. Clearly some had prior warning all was not well and the fall accelerated with SP hitting 1.67 early Sept on strong volumes. I posted i sold one-third as soon as i read the ann but kept remainder as was unsure re seriousness of this contract cancellation. Meanwhile CSV had replaced Fujie agency in QLD with Canon. My call to company were not returned. So what has happened?
It appears 3rd Sept was the low. Since then moderate-good vols and reasonable buying pressure has seen SP rise steadily and today we are back to where we were late-July i.e. $1.895. During this time NAB has become a substantial holder AND SP has gone ex-div 3c ffr. It leads me to feel underlying business model is solid and SP is likely to reflect this. However, i am not as confident as 7 weeks ago. My new estimate is SP rising to about $2.10 by Christmas (assuming mkt doesn't tank) and then a strong half-year result in Feb along with substantially higher dividend. This should boost SP by another 20c. So all-in-all i'm holding-on with hope of $2.30 by mid-march 2011 and interim div 6c ffr.
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