If China can somehow contain its outbreak, and if other countries with cases can prevent sustained transmission, Dr. Fauci said that it might be possible to end the outbreak, just as the coronavirus that caused the SARS epidemic in 2003 was stamped out.
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“But it’s going to be a real kind of tightrope walk, because if it gets so expansive then it’s not going to just disappear the way SARS did,” he said. “I think the next four to five weeks are going to be critical. It’s either going to start peaking and go into a downturn, or it’s going to explode into a global outbreak.”
Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview that he thought it would become clear in a few days whether the outbreak could be contained.
“If we’re seeing widespread transmission, thousands or tens of thousands of infections in the community, I don’t see how this gets controlled,” Dr. Frieden said. “On the other hand, if we see a SARS-like situation, where with incredible effort they were able to isolate people, tamp down the spread, then we’re in a containment situation.”
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