CTD 0.29% $13.65 corporate travel management limited

When you ask a question like that in Hotcopper your responses...

  1. 1,245 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 25
    When you ask a question like that in Hotcopper your responses will be biased based on if the individual holds or does not hold the stock. I had been a long term holder of CTD and recently sold out.
    The concerns are numerous including the VGI short. If you read the recent VGI report they make it clear that the bounce caught them out. VGI acknowledged that they should have probably closed a number of shorts but did not. They do not inform us which companies they did close out and which they did not. They have made a big deal out of their CTD short, so I would be surprised if this is one they would be covering at the current price (they probably do regret not closing it at about 5 dollars when there was large volumes being traded).
    I have a bearish view of airline, travel and corporate travel in particular. The company I do some work for used to fly us to Sydney twice a year with CTD organizing travel, accommodation etc. They have decided that since we have been doing the job just as well with ZOOM we will not be needing to travel to Sydney anymore. This is just my personal experience and I can guarantee you there will be more out there.
    Additionally, people just plain and simple are not going to just jump back on planes, domestic or otherwise, even if their companies still are willing to pay for them to fly for business. There are longer term dynamics at play here. Things will not just go back to the way they were.
    Finally, where is the insider buying, that was rampant at 20 dollars a share at the beginning of the VGI short. Nowhere to be seen. Why, because they are telling you that there is little value here.
    Below is a copy of my post when the share price was close to 12 dollars per share (my sell price was between just above 12)
    "I think that 25 m in domestic revenues per month will need discounting in any valuation model, perhaps even by 50%. 12.5 m per month at 10-12 m cost per month versus 25 m per month is a big difference. 12.5 m per month will give you pre-tax profit of 30 m per year (assuming costs are kept down at 10 m per month). Net profit is 21 m. At current market cap of 1.3 b, that is a PE of 61"
    So although I am not "invested", I have held a significant position for a long time. I would certainly buy back at the right price. Based on the above valuations, that would be about a PE 30 x that 21 m profit estimate. That is roughly 6 dollars per share (all else being equal).
    If you are a shareholder of CTD, I would urge you to read the reports written by VGI management, freely available on the ASX.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add CTD (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
$13.65
Change
-0.040(0.29%)
Mkt cap ! $1.997B
Open High Low Value Volume
$13.76 $14.01 $13.58 $13.00M 945.2K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
10 30169 $13.60
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$13.66 29852 4
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
CTD (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.