I respect that analysis and thank your for pointing that out.
You could well be right, though I will explain my take
and why my analysis tends to bullish:
If I have a large Rectangle and a channel providing overheard resistance (or
otherwise conflicting), I will always go with the Rectangle, though I would see
more of a chance of a retest (and a good technical explanation for the last few
days of trading, but I think, in this case, the Sep 2016 high is a more likely factor.)
As with most "diagonal" vs "horizontal" patterns, Channels are far less reliable than
Rectangles. This I learned fromPeter Brandt (He has the last word on classical
charting by me). I have found it to be accurate in my experience. I almost never
trade channel breakouts on their own anymore, unless I have a more reliable
pattern taking place simultaneously (even if on a smaller time-frame) I will
however take consideration of them for profit-taking.
This is especially true for channels that are less perfectly defined. The 4.5+ year
Rectangle is much more obvious (to me at least) than that channel which took
me a few seconds to identify on my chart even after seeing yours. It is also longer
in duration. It is the patterns I do not have to look too hard to find that have born
the best results for me historically.
The first weekly close we just had above 0.27 outside the Rectangle is significant
IMO (Though one above the Sep 2016 high would be better). A monthly close
which is possible within the next few days would add strength to this case as well.
The attractiveness here is the extremely high risk/reward ratio. Over 1:5 based
on where my stop would go. I never really try to make predictions, just execute
trades based probabilities with the knowledge that I will likely be wrong on any
given trade.
I have not taken a position here, and despite my comments above about
market cap, I am watching it. If the price consolidates
a little here and perhaps even develops a smaller pattern on the daily
and begins another leg up, I will probably take a shot. We will also be watching
volume quite closely as it has not been ideal.
All the best
CTM chart, page-15
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Last
47.5¢ |
Change
0.005(1.06%) |
Mkt cap ! $235.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
47.5¢ | 48.0¢ | 45.0¢ | $515.1K | 1.095M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5 | 47.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
48.0¢ | 532 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5 | 0.475 |
1 | 9876 | 0.470 |
1 | 6000 | 0.450 |
2 | 16800 | 0.440 |
5 | 35397 | 0.430 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.480 | 532 | 1 |
0.485 | 24633 | 3 |
0.495 | 10000 | 1 |
0.500 | 245000 | 3 |
0.505 | 2000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 16/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
47.5¢ |
  |
Change
0.005 ( 2.15 %) |
|||
Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
47.5¢ | 48.0¢ | 45.0¢ | 230492 | ||
Last updated 15.59pm 16/05/2024 ? |
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CTM (ASX) Chart |