Hoping CTM goes to 3.5Mtpa with the upgrade in MRE's coming through.
If they can do 3.5Mtpa and maintain 1% feed grade at 82% recoveries we get ~28.5kt/pa of metal
Assume that AISC goes to $4.50 ($4 in SS - but CTM might not do too badly with a lot of hydro power etc with inflation).
Nickel seems to have found a floor at around $25k/t even though everything been melting down.
If you assume $11/lb that gives us $6.50/lb margins.
US$407m per annum EBITDA. That is probably a 1 year payback even if you assume some solid capex blowout.
That's also greater than current MC.
I think we are likely trading less than <0.2x eventual NAV here
CTM Fundamental's., page-15
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