Early days but the back of envelope pre production capex (US$160m) for 1.5mtpa plant in those broker reports is ridiculously low...even doubled as is expected with these projects leaves room.
Considering laterite HPAL plants command a premium in capex terms...Ambatovy Madagascar US$4.5B, Ramu PNG US$2.5B+, Goro New Caledonia US$5B+ etc sure they’re bigger plants but hugely expensive and prone to cost blowouts. Funding in today’s market is nigh on impossible as proven of late by several Aussie hopefuls with lower initial capex so finance much more likely for these lower cost sulphides.
Offtakers and financiers will be much keener to get involved especially on an expanded resource. Piggybacking on Vale’s existing infrastructure does make plenty of economic sense however which would sweeten any lenders view. Plenty to think about...
Early days but the back of envelope pre production capex...
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