I attended the AGM today and in short, walked away even more optimistic than when I went in.
Nothing overly new and most of the content that was discussed by RC during his Managing Directors pitch was things that we already know. What I was looking for was his body language, mannerisms and whether or not he was being congruent in his delivery, which I thought he was.
- He started of with thanking Bob Little, for his work for the country with regards to Aboriginal reconciliation and how he has been a long term employee of the company and has helped CTP in negotiations with the traditional owners in Alice Springs.
- He then went on to say that the company is poised and on the cusp of major shareholder growth.
- He spoke about how for three to four years QGC flat lined and didn’t really progress in share price, until the foundations had been laid and the PNG pipeline had been pulled from the table. He said that we are on the same cusp with the NEGI pipeline.
- He said that part of the reason he joined this company, was because he could see a brilliant future.
- He mentioned that the company was very vigilant in hiring local people for the local jobs in the NT, so that when the Fracwits from Byron Bay come knocking, there is a face to the name of the people whom they are trying to rip their jobs from them. Local people, working with the company on local issues and informing the company of the things they may need to react to.
- He said that two years ago he was very concerned about the oil price and its longevity. We needed a safe harbour for a possible oil price collapse. At that stage 100% of our revenues were oil based and it appeared that with six trains (each train using the same amount of gas that NSW uses as a state per annum), that there would be a gas shortage in the domestic market.
- 2012 NSW gas stats he mentioned were 50% of the gas consumption came from 300 companies employing 300,000 people on gas dependant jobs. 26% of NSW gas was for electricity generation and 24% was for domestic commercial use.
- Across the three states (NSW, QLD and Vic) there is actually 1,000,000 gas dependant jobs in manufacturing. In total for the nation, approx 10% of the total work force requires gas for their employment. You can see from those stats that NEGI takes on a very important role for the health of the nation. We need to preserve 1,000,000 people's jobs and over time it is only going to get worse.
- Southern or northern route for NEGI once it is confirmed (of which everyone I spoke to at CTP believe it is a big possibility to go through). Clearly the Southern route would be more expandable, and that is probably where our preference lies. But the Northern route will be built quicker and we then receive revenues faster. He said win, win for CTP for either route, but Southern route preferred.
- 420pj for Merranie to be certified by either the end of this year or the start of next year from a 280 target. Why? Because we have found an enormous amount of data from the 54 wells already drilled. That is only from two of the five producing zones. The game is just beginning with that announcement.
- The cost of production is around $1per Gj. The average cost in the Cooper basin is around $4.50. So we will be the lowest cost producer not withstanding the distance, into the eastern seaboard market.
- We are anticipating between $3-4mil operating profit per annum per pj f NEGI happens.
- 95% of our revenue will come from gas domestically. So the oil price becomes irrelevant, and if the oil price does recover, we get a nice little earner. It is a good position to be in as if the oil price recovers, we win, but if it doesn't, you care, but not that much.
- We are nearly there and NEGI is only a fortnight away at most.
- When asked about the the Santos and Total JV, he said that the company now has itself in a position where we don't care to much about those JVs. If Total do not wish to proceed, we get to keep 100% of our acreage and say thanks for the $48mil and letting us know what we have got in our land.
- The whole market has changed he said, but if all goes belly up, we have covered the downside. The rest is up to the JV partners now. It's their decision. If it happened two years ago, I would be scared, but the downside is now covered and we have a great deal more now than those two JVs.
Apologies for the brief notes, but that was the main points from today's meeting.
I hope this helps and paints a picture for those who could not attend.
Gibbo
CTP Price at posting:
24.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
