ctp diehard

I am a CTP diehard (dating back to 2008). These comments are designed to highlight what I consider to be very good reasons to hold on to this stock. The motive for putting it out there is to see if there are contrary arguments that I should be listening to.

Let me reflect on the fact that Drillsearch (share price $1-52 on 30 Jan) is jubilating, and making headlines, regarding its Cooper Basin Bauer field resource which is estimated at around 3.2 mmbbls.

That puts CTP's situation in a very favourable light. The figures for CTP's oil discovery at Surprise West (the original find) are 1P reserves certified at .8 mmbbls. Surprise East hasn't got a figure certified in those terms but is credited with a 2C resource estimate of 17.7 mmbls. I will adopt that as indicative of the likely OOIP and assume that only 35% will be recoverable. It is likely that ultimately a 1P reserve of 6.2 mmbbls for Surprise East will be established.

I am confident of the probability that CTP's total 1P reserves (for Surprise West and East) will ultimately be 7 mmbbls (a little over double Drillsearch's pride and joy).

But wait - there's more. That is just Surprise which is but one amid another 13 healthy oil plays in CTP's production licence area (the Greater Surprise area). The others, all noted in 3D seismic, are: Johnstone West, Johnstone West 1, Johnstone West Up-Dip, McCoy, Kirk, Spock A, Spock B, Spock C, McGregor, Uhura, Chekov and Chapel and the additional anticlinal target deep below Surprise.

And hold up, there's more yet. I haven't mentioned that these prospects are all within 30 or less km of Surprise and will all be covered by CTP's production licence when officially granted.

Don't go away. There is more good news. The production licence area is a small rectangle (60 km by 30 km - 180 square km) within CTP's Amadeus basin Exploration Permit 115 and is only approximately a 1/5 part of the Permit area. There is scope for another 4 similar sized production licence areas in the Permit (and one is in close proximity to the existing Mereenie field).

That's not all. On top of those unexplored parts of EP115 Santos, a cashed up major company in JV with CTP, is already exploring a further part of EP115 (about twice the size of the Greater Surprise area) which is an extension of the existing Mereenie field.

More good news. CTP has another 16 titles in the Amadeus basin (4 of which are already being explored in JV with Santos).

Specifically CTP has the entire Amadeus basin covered. Drillsearch has part of the Cooper basin and CTP has the whole of the Amadeus basin.

Is that all? Not quite; CTP also has title over a significant proportion of 3 other hydrocarbon basins.

2014 - 2015 will be an epoch time for CTP.