ctp is considerably overvalued

What does this company have to show for years upon years of blood sweat and lots of tears? Nothing. No flow rates, no coal production, nudda....

PSI82, a great analyst of the oil and gas industry, and probably one of the few posters I ever payed attention to on the CTP HC thread hypothesised that if JW1 was successful, a reasonable target for flow rates would be 100BOPD. The well didn't appear to have any gas readings, so let's make that 100BOEPD. Given the geology of the area, I imagine a suitable target could also be made for Surprise1. The pressure at lower depths will force the oil upwards, so, my hypoethetical mind tells me that 200BOEPD out of Surprise would not be an unreasonable target. Now CTP owns basically owns 100% of Surprise, so thats about 200BOEPD into CTPs coffers from Surprise.

CTP Market Cap = approx $70M fully diluted
Potential Flows = 100BOEPD (if JW1 is revisted and fixed) and 200BOEPD (surprise)
Total = 300BOEPD

So if you look at a $:BOEPD ratio (Market Cap divided by # BOEPD), CTP score a ratio of $0.233M, and these flows aren't even proven up.

Now look at the ASX listed O&G small caps that are tearing up at the moment over in the shale areas of America.

EKA ratio: 0.116
SEA ratio: 0.141
AUT ratio: 0.109
CTP ratio (hypothetical): 0.233

EKA, SEA and AUT have their own oil kitchen going on at the moment. They don't need BRR interviews and newspaper articles to tell you that.

When you factor in that the other three companies have all the infrastructure set up already and JV arrangements prepared, they seem like an absolute bargain compared to CTP, and that is factoring in a CTP share price of 6.5cents, not some 15-20cent figure that some believe CTP will hit if Surprise is a success.

Now there is fair argument that CTPs acreages are worth a whole lot. But what have they proven up so far?....NOTHING! What about the coal, you may ask. Well I believe the company is at least 10 years out from monetising any of the black stuff. So right now, at this very moment, at this share price, factoring in a potential of 300BOEPD, CTP has a marketable ratio between 65% and 114% higher than some of the best and most efficient O&G small caps listed on the ASX.

Let me ask you this. Why do you bother? The chance of success is 40% or something. You are laying a lot on the line by holding this company, when at these prices, without any proven resources, the company is already more than twice the value of what it potentially should be if it had some success.

You may say, but what about the growth and the potential of other wells. Well all I say to that is the other three companies also have growth and the potential of other wells.

For what it's worth, if CTP produced 300BOEPD, and had fundamentals as strong as those companies producing in America, a fair share price purely on a revenue basis would be 3cents.

Conclusively, the die is cast. At these prices, even if they had respectable resources, and managed to grow their reserves at a rate similar to SEA, AUT and EKA, CTP is considerably overvalued.