ctp is considerably overvalued, page-21

Let me make it quite clear that I'm not saying CTP won't rally if Surprise hits oil. Day traders love an announcement to ride a 30%-40% intraday move. I might even get in on the mix with a small trade to ride the pump like I did with the JW1 news.

The fact is, once the dust settles, and reality kicks in, if CTP don't get upwards of about 800-1000BOEPD then people will realise that this company really isn't worth the fuss. There are better, safer, cheaper and more consolidated buys out there right now. You can go off in another CTP thread and make your own ironic riddled posts about what I'm saying here, but the fact stands that an aweful lot of hope is already factored into the share price. Investors are hanging out for the coal many years down the track. They are hanging out for a huge oil find when in likely reality, the amount that CTP will find (if they do), will rate up as reasonable but nothing fantastic when compared to other oilers out there right now.

If CTP strike lucky and they really are sitting atop an oil kitchen, then 1500BOEPD is a possible target if you drill 5-6 successful wells. That gives you your share price around 20cents. If this thing is an utter dud, then expect sub 3 cents in 2011.

Whatever happens in the next few weeks, I really have no interest in. But in the long run, say 2-3 years, the intrinstic value of CTP (whether it be 3 cents or 20cents)(refer to post above) will most likely be reached.