The usual caution, do not use this post to make investment...

The usual caution, do not use this post to make investment decisions DYOR and DYOS (Doyourownspreadsheet!).




I would like to share with you an iteration f the (Probably flawed) Sensitivity analysis model.
The Sydney city gate GSA selling price range is just a guess and the parameters used in the model are shown above it.

In any case users can do a simple check on the numbers fairly easily.

The thing that concerns me is that in view of the 50 TJ/day Mereenie surface facility output mentioned in the SOA and my previous understanding that it was probably only good for 47 TJ/day, I am concerned that regardless of (My guess probable) drilling appraisal success we will not be able to process enough gas to fill NGP1.

In this run I have set the slide bar (Top LH Corner) at 50 TJ/d through Mereenie & thrown in 10 TJ/day from Palm Valley & Dingo and this (according to the model) still leaves a bit (5TJ/day) unused in NGP1.

The black dashed line shows the impact of a 25% reduction across the board on uncovered pipelines however the Cost of Production at the site gate ($1.50) in this case is every bit as important as pipeline reform because it comes straight off the Lowest (Pessimistic) modelled share price bottom line.

This assertion can be put to bed by CTP with an unequivocal announcement (Say the presentation at AGM) and crossing this one off the risk list for once and for all would certainly make me a lot comfortable as a shareholder.

Best regards to all

OGP