With construction of the pipeline completed over a month ago, and the compression stations almost completed, imagine the commissioning of the NGP has started and if all goes well it may be ready for gas sales either next month (Oct) or November. All CTP shareholders have been waiting for the new gas sales cash flow to come in, and combined with our fingers crossed on PV13 & Ooraminna drilling results, are hoping for a boost to our regrettable share price this calendar year.
But as I do some figures I find myself scratching my head on a few issues, and am hoping other learned shareholders may be able to put my mind at ease.
My understanding is the NGP has transportation capacity (without compression) of 90 TJ/day, and after PWC takes their 31TJ/day there is approx. 58TJ/day (21 PJ/yr) capacity available for use. We have previously been led to believe that CTP intends to contract
all this available capacity.
How much gas do we have available to put down the NGP however? This is where the story appears to get a little murky.
Slide 4 of the 12 June 2018 presentation announcement (Ref 1) describes CTP’s “Sales Gas Schedule 2019” as a total forecast contracted sales and plant capacity of 54 TJ/day (19.7 PJ/year). Sadly this is different to the story advised only 1 month later on Slide 3 of the 19 July 2018 presentation announcement (Ref 2), which indicates gas sales this year of only 15.4 PJ/year. I previously raised on HC the issue of what happened to the balance of 4.3 PJ/year, and the key difference seems to be the “New 2019 GSA – Stage 2” which was dependent on the “Post Mereenie lateral upgrade”.
So how much is CTP currently contracted to use when NGP is ready? That would appear to be
only 10 PJ/year according to Ref 1, which represents
only half the available capacity. Existing Gas Sales Contracts either total 6.2PJ/year (Ref 1) or 5.4PJ/year (Ref 2), but don’t run thru the NGP.
Am I missing something here? Despite the plant upgrades currently underway, is this still the issue?
Also if anyone at CTP management is reading this, providing clarity on the above and also forecast revenue for FY19 & FY20 would be nice. This might be a great opportunity for Leon to discuss next Wednesday morning (
http://www.riuconferences.com.au/upload/conferences/goodoil2018/GO18 Onsite Programme.pdf).
(20min delay)