I can see your logic
@ZackButler, but I can't see it getting that low without a retrace up at least in the short term.
The entire ASX retail sector is heavily oversold and CTT currently trading at 53.9% down from it's all time high of $4.90.
On top of that, the stock has also moved down 8 consecutive days in a row, which puts it on par historically with two other moves that represent the worst consecutive down movements in straight days lower
across its entire history. Couple this with the fact there have been no real stock specific news, there has been little change to warrant a true move down, other than institutional fear mongering tactics, which aims to flush people out of their positions. The duration and close below the MA200 is a better indicator here, since the stock has been an ideal trend following setup with the current primary trend still upward. This suggests consolidation in the short term, before the next long term move either up or down. I don't consider a direct break of the MA200 particularly bad as it's common practice to break these just to force stop losses on trend followers. Your chart misses this long and fairly intensive period of support as you can see on my chart above. Also shown is the MA200 in green and the long term trend via the blue support line. We also have bullish divergence appearing on the Daily RSI, suggesting a possible bullish scenario may arise if it holds around the current levels.
The market appears to be receptive again to rate cuts both in AUS, UK and the US, which has been the primary driver of the downward price since it's all time high. If we see any further hints or an actual rate cut (possibly September), the price will go through a boom and likely a potential short squeeze if the current short levels remain where they are at ~4.1%. The fact the JPM closed went back to their previous condition (i.e. not a substantial holder) suggest that the downward pressure likely has subsided. I'm aware this is the opposite thought process since they 'ceased' being a substantial holder, but the market isn't as straight forward as people think when it comes to true short positions and lending of shares. Will be watching if SS announces the same soon for further confirmation.
Part of the downward pressure was the China economic news, with retail spending increasing, but at a far lower rate then expecting. CTT would obviously be sensitive to this, given their next move is in China, however to forecast this far ahead seems too speculative to make any decisions lacking actual numbers and for a trading situation that has not even started yet.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/china-economy-april-retail-sales-industrial-production-investment-data.htmlThere was also mixed signals regarding luxury spending, with both winners and losers depending on which luxury company you look into for it's latest Sales/NPAT data. Given CTT is not specific to brand and the overall market for luxury goods is still in demand, I see this as more of a bullish scenario than bearish. Cartier for example reported all time high record sales:
"The Cartier owner said group sales rose 3% to an all-time high of 20.6 billion euros in the year despite a weakening outlook for luxury brands."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/richemont-shares-climb-6percent-on-record-full-year-sales-new-ceo.html?qsearchterm=cartier
(20min delay)