"...you say that the market buyback mechanism was the main reason we have a 10% tanking."
I did? Nope, that's not right.
What I did say, in quite plain and inelegant English, was that it "could have something to do with it."
No mention of the phrase "main reason" whatsoever
"...you then profess to understand the implications of same affecting the sp of CTX."
The exact opposite, actually: What I said was the following: "But what I'm not so good at is analysing the hourly/daily/weekly ebbs and flows of share prices. Actually, I'm woeful at it."
Remember?
"so this is getting very interesting- i am going to ask you to clarify your position as long as you feel totally comfortable with this request."
I'm a bit surprised it interests anyone, given my patent lack of insight into the answers you keep seeking, but nonetheless, I am eminently comfortable in acquiescing to your request.
But, if I wasn't clear before, I'll try once again to be:
THE POSSIBLE REASONS WHY CTX's SHARE PRICE WENT DOWN
[By Madamswer (March, 2016)]
Again, I preface my ensuing treatise by saying I am not too sure why share prices do what they do in the short term (over the longer term, I am absolutely 100% sure, but not over the course of a particular series of hours or days or weeks...or months, even).
At any rate, here goes:
I, Madamswer, think Caltex's share price went down over the 20 or 25 odd-trading hours sometime in early March could possibly be because of one, or a combination of, the following reasons:
- Some investors want to lock in profits, and/or
- Some investors think that refining margins are going to fall, and/or
- Some investors don't like the buyback, and/or
- Some investors like the buyback, but don't think it is big enough, and/or
- Some investors (foreign or domestic) have taken out derivative positions in order to arbitrage the capital loss that arise from the buyback, and/or
- Some foreign investors who don't benefit from franking credits have taken out derivative positions to arbitrage the franking credits that arise from the buyback, and/or
- Some investors had a meeting with management and didn't like what they heard, and/or
- Some investors don't like the sound of Caltex selling fresh sandwiches from its service stations and/or
- Some investors don't the like the deal Caltex did with Car Next Door, and/or
- Some investors think that a 40% hike in dividends was not enough, and/or
- Some investors think that Caltex is going to make an acquisition, and/or
- Some investors are disappointed that Caltex hasn't made an acquisition, and/or
- Some fund manager has lost a mandate and needs to liquidate stocks from his/her portfolio which includes Caltex, and/or
- Some fund manager(s) has ended up with too big a Caltex position in his/her portfolio due to the spectacular outperformance of the stock in recent years, and the fund's trustees have forced the portfolio position to be reduced, and/or
- There has been a change of personnel at certain institution and the new portoflio manager doesn't know, or doesn't like CTX, and/or
- Where all of the umpteen official inquiries over many years have come up with nothing conclusive, maybe this time for some reason some investors think that the Queensland inquiry would somehow be different - (heck, I didn't even know that an inquiry was underway in Queensland),
(pause for breath)
Or, it could be for a million other technical reasons, such as:
The A$ strengthening, and/or
Oil prices are going up, and/or
Peace talks are underway in Syria, and/or
The gold price is going up, and/or
Malcom Turnbull is turning out to be a bit of a lame PM, and/or
Donald Trump might become the next US President, and/or
Some investors might be worried about the sky falling on their heads
etc.
etc.
etc.
(ad nauseum)
There.
While it is admittedly not the most definitive answer, it should at least give you something to work with in your quest of un-ravelling the mystery of what drives the short-term share price.
Best of luck with it.
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