Unfortunately the chart reflects the fundamentals. When CU6 did the capriase in March 24, Wilson's (who were doing the most in-depth research on CU6 at the time, not to mention the regular "Science Hat" podcasts) were of the view that at at least one diagnostic product would be on the market in calendar 2025 and the therapy product was looking much better than Pluvicto. On this basis, the imperative for BP to do some sort of Fusion deal was strong.
Wilson's also thought that the March capraise would remove the "funding overhang", so once complete, we'd be off to the races. And it was right - six months later we were over $8.
But in the next six months: - diagnostic product to market, delayed probably three years. Looking like 2028.
- therapy product not yet proved sufficiently superior on its own to justify Phase III (or by extension BP interest). Might be worthwhile in combination with Enza-p, but this is (a) unknown, (b) years away
- the 2024 funding overhang morphed into a 2025 funding overhang, and its even bigger than the 2024 one.
Prior to the 2024 capraise, Clarity had been making reliable progress and was therefore an exciting biotech, easy to fund. Now Clarity is a biotech with the record of having conducted a capital raise and used those funds to go from 18-months away from commercialisation to 3-years away from commercialisation. Won't be so easy to fund this time and the discount will be far steeper.
Prior to last 6 months, management arrogance was viewed as justified confidence. Now it just looks like arrogance - the old "no one loves you if you get to Phase 3" and the latest cringe-worthy interview at the Bell Potter conference where we hear at 1:50 that "its very rare for a biotech to do a dose escalation trial". Imagine meeting with a BP and rolling out that line ...
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