@Hingdog (useless reply function still not working)
2028: Clarity basically confirming that CLARIFY won't finish before AMPLIFY (plan to submit both to the FDA at the same time).
AMPLIFY hasn't started yet and is to be for 220 patients.
Assume AMPLIFY starts recruiting in mid-2025. Given how far CLARIFY hasn't gotten in its 16 months since recruitment started, hard to believe AMPLIFY can complete recruitment in anything under two years. This take us to mid-2027. Then collate final results, send to FDA, await approval - 12 months minimum. So I get to mid-2028 at best.
2028 for revenue was also suggested by Frazis in most recent interview.
The chart is just a logical representation of what has happened on a fundamental basis - BP acquisition interest didn't materialise, trials all delayed and massively blown out timelines (which has the double-whammy of highlighting capital insufficiency), efficacy only ok so far.
It looks like the only way Clarity avoids a capital raising with a $1-handle is if it manages to secure some sort of partnership deal or manages to sell off some part of its portfolio to at least demonstrate external interest and reduce the size of the required capital raise.
Board seems absolutely powerless. All of the issues would have been obvious to them months ago, but they haven't been able to come up with any strategy to arrest the decline. Then again, this is the risk associated with a one-man-band. When things go right it hides inadequacies. When things go wrong, there's no alternative.
Chair has almost 20m shares / options. So the best part of a $150m paper loss over the past 6 months. And yes, I know he earns nearly $2m in salary, and still has a multi-million dollar shareholding, but regardless of who you are, that sort of paper loss is impactful and distracting ...
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