in reply to
@ttppxxThank you for sharing and thanks as always for your excellent and generous research.
I still *think* cu6 has superior products in its space, but it wouldn't be the first company with superior products to fail to successfully commercialise.
When it got its Rare Pediatric Disease Designation for cu64 and cu67 in SARTATE, I thought it could sell these vouchers for US$100m each, and fund its other programs. If / when that happens looks like still being 3-5 years away.
I can't see any of its diagnostic products being commercialised before 2028. Obviously its therapy products are some time behind that.
Which leave capital raises.
If its to fund itself through to commercialisation, it looks like it will need to raise at least twice in the interim. The upcoming raise is looking like sub-$2. That's not a good look for a company that raised at $2.55 (what will be) 18-ish months prior. And as noted, at the $2.55 raise, Clarity looked to be 12-18 months away from cashflow. 12 months later, it looks three years away. Could it show very promising interim trial results, boost its SP and raise at a higher price? Maybe. But the speed of current trials suggests "a possibly better product", not "a miracle cure".
There's also the reputational damage - would be a contender for most extreme devaluation of any company to ever be included in the ASX200. Staggering, but it was just 4 months ago at the AGM that the Chair suggested the drop from $8.70 to $6.80 presented a "good buying opportunity".
Of course there's always the mythical BP takeover offer possibility. But from here $3 is a 50% premium and given the expanded timeframe to commercialisation, there is less pressure on BP to make an offer than there was 12 months ago. As the price continues to plummet, so to does the 50% premium.
Science might be great (although the swing from "can't stop talking about it" to "radio silence / bury deep in reports", is not a good sign) but that doesn't necessarily translate to money. And we're investors ...
One other thing to remember is $2 looks pathetic vs $8.70, but $2 still represents a market cap of $650m.
(20min delay)