CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LTD (ASX:CU6) - CU6 - General discussion, 78903542, page-498 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by longreach: ↑

Certainly with the recent doom and gloom in the markets, the general negativity encapsulated by major investment banks making decisions that likely has resulted in the prevalence and increased frequency of shorting stocks (especially non-revenue stocks) both in the US and elsewhere (including the ASX), the failure of Opthea as another warning for biotech investors, etc etc, these elements have all come together to create a perfect negative storm for CU6.

But IMO there is light at the end of the tunnel. . .I refer to cpt-yossarian's post of 03 May 2025:

"A bidding war from BP...Now that is the question...and it's a very big question...it's potentially a life changing question for a lot of long term holders."I used to be very confident of a BP takeover. About this time last year - I thought a takeover of 5-8b USD was a no brainer for both the purchaser and the seller (us)...now I am not too sure..

."Now...everthing that follows is purely speculation on my part....I am taking things from what AT has said in interviews etc. I am taking into account his "bullsih-ness" during these interviews and his general confidendence (which borders on arrogance at times - but hey - as a sharholder in the company - I want him to be arrogant etc. and when the science backs it up with 3 FTDs - how good!!!!)..

.What is AT saying of late???...he notes that the diagnostics and therapy market is about 10b USD per year...he is saying that we are not here to muck around...that he wants to take it all..."Our therapy product has just "moved forward" into pre-chemo patients - where Novartis reckon with their Pluvicto product that it is worth about 5b USD in sales per year...just think about that figure for a moment...

"Now...none of us have a crystal ball...none of us know exactly how much of the market share that Clarity will take (if any - in both diagnostics and therapy).. we can all speculate and that's great...but what I want to consider is what AT could possibly recommend to shareholders based on his recent comments...

"Let's assume for just one moment that he is right - and our products dominate the market - what is a fair takeover value? It has to be north of 10b USD right? People might make a case that it should be less than this amount - fair enough. We are all speculating.If we assume that he is a bit off with his assertions - and we only take half the market (diagnostic and therapy) - what is a fair takeover value? "We have significant patent protection (which some people don't think is very important - god knows why) and a slew of other proprietary products for other cancers and indications...is the takeover value still north of 10b USD in these circumstances? I personally think it is."So whilst I am very bullish in relation to the company in general (and it taking most of the market share) - I am starting to think that a TO is becoming less likely. "Which BP player is going to take the "punt" and snap us up for north of 10b USD in the next 6 months?

"Anyway - time will probably prove this post laughably wrong - which is fine - I just can't presently see any BP offering north of 10b USD in the next 6 months - although stranger things have happened...It might be the case that Clarity have to go it alone for a little while. "In which case - has everyone done a deep dive on the technology over at Nusano??? What a company to align yourself with... I think Clarity has recently been described as a leader in innovation by one of its most fervent critics (shout out Big Nath)... which is so apt...I think what Clarity has done in terms of its chelator and targeting agents is the literal definition of innovation (compared to what the rest of the market is doing)..."

Like you Cpt-yossarian i remain a longer term investor in Clarity. I do believe AT comes across as very confident, some would say 'arrogant ', but i put it down to a number of things
- his confidence in the platform that Clarity is building;
- the IP that Clarity and its precursors have developed, particularly the BIS molecule that holds the Cu isotopes firmly such that safety of its products are of the highest level;
- that relative to its competitor products which currently are making huge revenues in a (sadly) burgeoning market the Cu isotopes at this stage have potential to be best in class (albeit yet to be fully confirmed)
- the more convenient half life of the Cu isotopes.
AT has publicly stated that in the trials "we are not failing".

Similar to you cpt-yossarian I wonder how the future of CU6 will play out. I am becoming more comfortable, thanks to the success with TLX, that we can go it alone, all the way - because as you say the markets for both diagnostics and therapy are huge.
If we just take the diagnostics, which i think will become the first source of revenues for CU6, AT is of the view that Cu64 won't be taking a share of that market, it will dominate that market! So is it a dominant position in a US$4 Billion, or $5Billion, or whatever Billion, at say a 5 - 6? x multiple of that? The mind boggles! We all of a sudden get a valuation far in excess of what TLX is today (A$9.5 Billion)!

And then there is therapy . . .

Of course there's a lot to play out before we see anything close to these value numbers appear - but for me it's a real possibility.
That's why I thought your post should move to a thread where it won't be lost within posters who are more focused towards an entry and exit point based on the charts. That's not a criticism of chartists, it's simply a completely different investment style, which looks way beyond today' ascribed valuation.

Expand

The mind boggles - I couldn’t agree more. It’s hard to fathom what sort of price AT could/would possibly recommend to SHs (if things play out in line with his comments)

The “knock” on Clarity going alone generally seemed to centre around manufacturing the isotopes…

Seems to me that “knock” is redundant following the Nusano agreement. Capacity for 18,000 patient doses a day…combined with our shelf life and half life…

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(20min delay)
Last $4.11		Change -0.200(4.64%)		Mkt cap ! $1.329B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$4.20	$4.27	$4.09	$7.447M	1.792M

The mind boggles - I couldn’t agree more. It’s hard to fathom...

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