MAY 4.55% 2.1¢ melbana energy limited

Cuba Block 9 Operations Update, 12 March, page-24

  1. 7,740 Posts.
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    A little while back the language changed slightly: it went from being due in "February" to being due in "Q1". So March was brought into the equation. I am confident that AP would argue that it is still in line with that.

    The language used by the company is "upgrade". So McDaniels will improve the numbers, not argue them. Just a matter of scale, with estimates here between 3 and 6 times (TBH I have zero idea on where that number will land, and neither does the market). The fact that this is taking slightly longer than expected may actually be a good thing: to count 10 marbles in a jar only takes a few minutes, but it takes considerably longer if there are 100 in the jar, etc.

    The fact that the share price is at 6 cents is the only thing worrying people. A self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts: when the SP is lower than expected people get worried and sell. But ultimately, the long-term value of the company is not determined by the 1% or 2% of shares that change hands between punters, but will be determined by the proven resource value. Evolution Capital have already stated - in mid-2023 - that Block 9 had a value of 19+ cents, and MAY had a sum of parts value of 23+ cents. And that was based on the original estimates for the upper units, and the risked (trimmed) value of the lower units. Once the upper units are upgraded (there's that word again), the value goes up (and, Ceteris Paribas, the SP also goes up). Once the lower units are de-risked (which hopefully A3 will do) we will also see value increase (and the SP goes up). Two birds with one stone.

    Load up. Relax. Wait.

    Kit.

    (PS: Gawd: on reading that back it sounds a bit "Rochy"!. Apols for channeling The Roch).
    Last edited by Kit67: 12/03/24
 
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