With the way nominee companies are structured, it is impossible to know who holds what of CuDeco.
As for Xstrata/Glencore, they have announced:-
1 Costs and taxes are too high in Australia and there are more profitable opportunities in places like Colombia and Africa.
2 They have deferred a feasibility study which would have extended the mine life at Mt Isa.
3 Shutting down of their Mt Isa operation in 2019 looks likely and is naturally causing concern amongst staff, contractors, the business community and the general public who are worried about the future of their town.
Whilst not completely discounting a possible interest by Xstrata in CuDeco, they would certainly incur the wrath of Mt Isa residents if Cloncurry became the centre of their operations.
Decisions that have been made can of course be changed and planned closure is some years away.
CuDeco is at its second lowest share price level since 2010 and has been put in a vulnerable position with the sell down by M@G combined with the increased shorting activity.
I agree with you that the Chinese hold the key. Wayne has been courting the Chinese since their first visit in 2007 and a relationship has been established in the intervening period .
The appointment of a number of Chinese directors to the CuDeco board would, in my opinion, have strengthened that relationship.
It would have to be a pretty substantial offer to convince the Chinese companies to sell. The Chinese directors personally hold CuDeco shares as well.
OZ Minerals is a different proposition . Its overnight raid on Sandfire has not turned out as it thought it would. It has not turned out the bonanza it appeared to be at the time. Mine life [ correct me if I am wrong ]is about 7 years and Sandfire has debts. The mine life of of OZ Minerals producing mine is, I believe , also limited.
Oz Minerals is sitting on a wad of cash. There has been a lot of criticism of its Board for their inaction in bringing on a fresh project and their share price has suffered .
CuDeco has no debt, has the resource , currently a low share price and only a tad over 200 million shares. I think CuDeco would have been noticed by OZ Minerals.
We will just have to wait and see how things pan out. One thing is for sure and that is that Wayne would have an eagle eye on registry movements particularly in those nominee accounts.
CDU Price at posting:
$1.77 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
