It would be hard to criticise the fundamentals of CUE energy....

It would be hard to criticise the fundamentals of CUE energy. For a relatively small cap O&G they have developed a profitable business with geographic spread and development upside. They booked a Net Profit last year of $16m (2021- ($12.7)) and on my cashflows should book a similar NP for 2023.

The fundamental performance however is not reflected in the SP with stagnant prices and ever diminishing volumes. IMO this is due to current SH being unwilling to sell at current low SP and new investors unwilling to invest given CUE's current SH structure. (yes stating the obvious!!)

So what do other minority SH's believe is going to resolve the current "mexican standoff" between the majority and minority SH's? These are the options as I see them.

OG/NZO takeover
OG's wider interests are mainly privately held. In addition they have previously attempted to T/O NZO under a Scheme of Arrangement.
Fair to assume that OG/NZO would T/O CUE "for the right price". Assuming a SOA and 75% threshold the first call would have been to Petrochina (17%). Given no SOA has been proposed the price wasn't right.

3rd Party T/O
While less likely given OG's stated intention to "expand in the Asia Pacific region" there is the possibility OG/NZO would sell "for the right price". The current multiple party T/O bid for Warrego highlights the renewing interest in O&G (especially G)

Dividend
While this would rerate the stock I think it is probably not on the radar for OG. They would only receive 35% of any dividend paid (OG 70% of NZO, NZO 50% of CUE.) Conversely they currently have effective control of where/when CUE directs its income for only 35% contribution.

Share Buyback
This has the potential to benefit the major SH's by indirectly increasing their %age holding. It also could assist minorities as it will leave more on the table for a future T/O.

Do nothing
This is my least preferred, and CUE's current, position. I am concerned that OG have decided that a T/O at this stage is to difficult. Instead CUE will become their vehicle to carry out CAPEX and exploration/development effectively burying profit and ensuring the SP remains low.

What do other SH's think? Are these options accurate? Have I missed other options?

After the top 2 SH's the next 25% is owned by only 308 SH's. I am particularly interested in talking with any of these SH's to see if we can co-ordinate our activities to end the current standoff. (I'm currently in contact with 4 of the Top Twenty to attempt to move this forward)