Yes, it was stated that 195kt was approx half the expected production volume between Oct and Mar, however the latest announcement regarding FEX suggests a lot higher volumes per quarter - being 350kt.
350kt would be great given the current prices.
But even if we average between the bottom of the hedge and the spot, we get around 120USD/t, the expected production pre announcement, the hedged FX rate for 17.7m and similar OPEX, we get:
((120/0.6463) - 130) x 195,000 = 10.85m EBITDA.
If they are producing per the FEX announcement, it suggests:
((120/0.6463) - 130) x 350,000 = 19.485m EBITDA.
Seems like the market is sleeping either way. Oh well, more cheap shares for us.
WG
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