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Yes, it was stated that 195kt was approx half the expected...

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    Yes, it was stated that 195kt was approx half the expected production volume between Oct and Mar, however the latest announcement regarding FEX suggests a lot higher volumes per quarter - being 350kt.

    350kt would be great given the current prices.

    But even if we average between the bottom of the hedge and the spot, we get around 120USD/t, the expected production pre announcement, the hedged FX rate for 17.7m and similar OPEX, we get:

    ((120/0.6463) - 130) x 195,000 = 10.85m EBITDA.

    If they are producing per the FEX announcement, it suggests:

    ((120/0.6463) - 130) x 350,000 = 19.485m EBITDA.

    Seems like the market is sleeping either way. Oh well, more cheap shares for us.

    WG
 
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