Hi Lost, while your enthusiasm would be appreciated by most Coffey shareholders, I think there might be one or two teeny flaws in your approach.
You refer to EPS for FY13 of 3.4c.
Not sure where you came by that figure, but pre-NRI NPAT was $6.2m (you need to tax effect the $10.2m restructure costs, and then add that back to the reported $1.0m loss after tax).
So that’s EPS of 2.42 cps.
Also, I think the market is always forward-looking, so it is best, I believe, to not look in the rear view mirror, as it were, but to look at prospective earnings.
And specifically, in COF’s case, one needs to focus on EV/EBITDA as the most salient valuation multiple, given the significant debt reduction underway, and the resulting “re-equisation” of the EV/EBITDA multiple.
Viewed this way, and assuming there is no EBITDA rebound in the next two years (unlikely, I would have thought, but anyway...), the Free Cash Flow generated by the company would see NIBD falling by some $20m, I expect. Assuming the EV/EBITDA multiple remains at the current undemanding level of just 4x, it means that the market cap would rise by $20m, which is 25% up on the current $77m.
Of course, one would reasonably expect that, as the debt falls, the lower financial risk means that the multiple would rise (a fundamental tenet of investing).
5x EV/EBITDA would yield a share price of 40cps
6x EV/EBITDA would result in a price of 50c
And all this ignores any recovery whatsoever in operating earnings.
Cam
- Forums
- Charts
- cup and handle breakout - packer buys in
Hi Lost, while your enthusiasm would be appreciated by most...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 31 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add COF (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$1.25 |
Change
0.020(1.63%) |
Mkt cap ! $743.6M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.22 | $1.26 | $1.22 | $947.8K | 760.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 74311 | $1.25 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.26 | 6208 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 74311 | 1.245 |
2 | 18674 | 1.240 |
4 | 151570 | 1.235 |
3 | 4834 | 1.230 |
1 | 2534 | 1.225 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.255 | 6208 | 2 |
1.260 | 43054 | 5 |
1.265 | 26291 | 4 |
1.270 | 29192 | 3 |
1.275 | 11077 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 31/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
COF (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
CCO
THE CALMER CO INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Anthony Noble, CEO
Anthony Noble
CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online