Hi Lost, while your enthusiasm would be appreciated by most Coffey shareholders, I think there might be one or two teeny flaws in your approach.
You refer to EPS for FY13 of 3.4c.
Not sure where you came by that figure, but pre-NRI NPAT was $6.2m (you need to tax effect the $10.2m restructure costs, and then add that back to the reported $1.0m loss after tax).
So that’s EPS of 2.42 cps.
Also, I think the market is always forward-looking, so it is best, I believe, to not look in the rear view mirror, as it were, but to look at prospective earnings.
And specifically, in COF’s case, one needs to focus on EV/EBITDA as the most salient valuation multiple, given the significant debt reduction underway, and the resulting “re-equisation” of the EV/EBITDA multiple.
Viewed this way, and assuming there is no EBITDA rebound in the next two years (unlikely, I would have thought, but anyway...), the Free Cash Flow generated by the company would see NIBD falling by some $20m, I expect. Assuming the EV/EBITDA multiple remains at the current undemanding level of just 4x, it means that the market cap would rise by $20m, which is 25% up on the current $77m.
Of course, one would reasonably expect that, as the debt falls, the lower financial risk means that the multiple would rise (a fundamental tenet of investing).
5x EV/EBITDA would yield a share price of 40cps
6x EV/EBITDA would result in a price of 50c
And all this ignores any recovery whatsoever in operating earnings.
Cam
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Hi Lost, while your enthusiasm would be appreciated by most...
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Last
$1.14 |
Change
-0.008(0.65%) |
Mkt cap ! $683.9M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.15 | $1.15 | $1.14 | $349.5K | 306.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 2556 | $1.14 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.15 | 26072 | 12 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 5523 | 1.140 |
14 | 38287 | 1.135 |
13 | 107733 | 1.130 |
14 | 124522 | 1.125 |
20 | 135754 | 1.120 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.145 | 26250 | 12 |
1.150 | 29959 | 9 |
1.155 | 50894 | 9 |
1.160 | 74704 | 8 |
1.165 | 180227 | 7 |
Last trade - 14.47pm 07/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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AUSTRALIAN GOLD AND COPPER LTD
Glen Diemar, MD
Glen Diemar
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