I've run some numbers to see what the veterinary side of things...

  1. 184 Posts.
    I've run some numbers to see what the veterinary side of things could potentially be earning in the next couple of years while human trials are ongoing.

    - The $10mill was raised giving 208,333,334 shares.

    - From the OIS there are a total of 220,511 incidences of treatable cancer (with EBC-46) in Australia per year. The drug will only be available in Australia in the next couple of years so I'm limiting just to Aussie.

    - Assuming in the first year (2011) 5% of the total of the above cases are treated with EBC-46, increasing by 10% increments of the total cases annually.

    - Assuming there's about $300 profit per treatment (I believe this is ballpark figure)

    Year 1 (5% cases treated) - EPS = $0.016 , Total Profit = $3,307,665
    Year 2 (15% cases treated) - EPS = $0.032 , Total Profit = $6,615,330
    Year 3 (25% cases treated) - EPS = $0.048 , Total Profit = $9,922,995

    Say we use this and a conservative P/E = 5 (considering unlisted, high risk, etc) to estimate a market cap for the Veterinary side of the company we get:

    Year 1 = $16,538,325
    Year 2 = $33,076,650
    Year 3 = $49,614,975

    So any comments?

    I think the veterinary market in Australia has great earning potential. Ecobiotics owns 84% of Qbiotics so this should also be taken into consideration.


 
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