"imo there's a possibility he does want it back if he can get it cheap enough. I don't think he sold it because he didn't necessarily want it, he needed the cash for development, and CHK wouldn't have bought it if they thought it was worthless."
Individually I agree with all three main points that you make but I reach a different conclusion. Firstly I don't think CHK is trying to sell the land cheap and I know they don't think its worthless. I reckon they are trying to make a quick profit by flipping it. That may be why they rushed into the small amount of drilling that they actually did then saw that land prices were peaking and decided to take the quick profit and use the cash for other commitments.
I also agree that SSN sold the land because they needed the cash. That hasn't changed. SSN now has the cash and SSN still need it. Can't go buying back the land with said cash or the drilling programme will come to halt quite quickly and then where will we be. Even if they could buy the land back at half the price that SSN sold it for that would suck up $35mil which is pretty much our cash reserves after current development commitments. Given the global cash situation I see it as exceedingly unlikely that the board would put themselves back in the situation of being cash strapped once again.
SSN is in a great position given the financial climate. It would be madness to compromise that. Particularly now of all times.
I'd be happy with a few hundred BOPD and agree that the decline should be much lower as it isn't relying upon natual well presure for production. That said, I like your numbers better so I want you to be right. If you are I'll buy you a beer. Better still, if your right then there are going to be some very sorry sellers who wet their pants this week and the SP bounce would be very dramatic.
SSN Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
