Further deep dive into Euroz Hartleys (EH) report’s projections for Botanix Pharmaceuticals vs what i've done
Cumulative Patients (Dec 2026) My calculations: 83,097.
Cumulative Patients EH : 52440
Scripts per Patient
My calculations: 7.53EH: 6 and 12 both scenarios
Cumulative Scripts
EH @ 6 : 314500
EH @12 : 629000
Share price
My calculations using P/S ratio of 7: 1.68 upside if Mr Market is kind enough to see the growth storyline, DCF 0.76
EH Share Price: A$0.80 (DCF); A$1.64 (upside)
I personally think EH’s Conservative Outlook at A$179.14M revenue and A$0.80/share (April 2025) are less aggressive
" Our valuation is predicated on Sofdra capturing ~2.5% of U.S. hyperhidrosis patientsover the next decade, with a conservative 50% refill rate (~6 Scripts per patient) and 75%reimbursement. If refill rates persist at the current ~100%, our valuation increases to$1.64. As a cross-check, BOT trades at a ~41% discount to average sales multiples ofcomparable ASX biotechs at launch; applying these to our forecasts implies ~$0.72."
Lets cross the 50c hurdle team BOT
(20min delay)