BOT (ASX) Current And Future Valuation 2025

Originally posted by bajachris88: ↑

One matter to consider here in terms of valuation, is that the valuation of what the company is worth versus the share price are two independent metrics.

Often though, it seems to get blurred here; market cap is not a 'company valuation', and more so a market opinion / sentiment.

Example... I lived through the Big Pharma buy-out of ResApp (ASX RAP) during the tail end of COVID craziness. The offer given by Big Pharma (BP) was well above the value of the SP, demonstrating the independence of share market's valuation to buy-out valuation (buy-out valuation communicated in the BP offer).

So.... just because we sit in the 'low' 40c range now, doesn't reflect on what value a BP offer would entail now.

So when you see 'blue sky' valuation estimates here of $12 per share, know that such doesn't mean that each share will be priced at $12 by the share market before BP would possibly offer such.

During the RAP buy-out, once the BP offer was announced the SP did raise very quickly to the BP offer price. However, that was because the market had time to react as time was required (couple of weeks from memory...) to administer SH voting of acceptance of the offer. From memory though, I don't believe this applies to BOT... because the Board of Directors (BoD) have the majority of shares to achieve a majority vote chorum to accept a BP offer without engaging all SH? ... happy to be corrected here.

So to that end, what's our current BoD's exit strategy? Well... the BoD started BOT with funding from venture capitalists (VCs), thus their obligations is to make the most profits for their VCs as possible. Hence, the current and most effective ROI at the moment would be achieved from selling BOT at a premium to BP (a premium, which will need to be backed up by evidence and demonstrated success), rather than VC's slowly liquidating share holdings to the market, as the market currently undervalues BOT in comparison to the evidence based estimates in this thread.

The exit timing though, would be when the BoD feel they can get the most of out the BOT asset. Establishing defencible and credible success of the current SOFDRA asset is in work; once that is done, it will be easier to rationalise why BP need a fat wallet. Meanwhile, the talk of other assets being listed on BOT's digital/telemarketing platform may actually not eventuate, given there doesn't seem to be any actual/tangible plans communicated by the BoD aside from brief mentions. I feel it may simply demonstrate the boundless applications available to BP for the future, should they buy it out. I 'feel' that this is the cusp of the end... because medium to long term looking, the BoD has been particularly silent regarding developments of BOT's assets in the medium to long term, nor have they put 'meat on the bone' . I feel this may suggest BoD's sentiment to sell up before even getting to that point. Hence no demonstration of plans to go beyond...

So... BoD selling a successful telehealth platform to BP, demonstrated success of the platform via SOFDRA (as the test case), and SOFDRA as a product with demonstrated successful and plentiful revenues to the purchasing BP. Nice package huh!

Anywho, just my humble opinions...

Expand

Market Cap ≠ Intrinsic Value - CORRECT
Valuation vs Share Price Are Two Independent Metrics - TOTALLY INCORRECT
Interlinked. Not indepdent Market Cap = Share Price × Shares Outstanding
Blue sky” valuations vs takeover priceGood distinction — INCORRECT just because someone floats a $12/share valuation doesn't mean the market (or an acquirer) will pay that.

In a nut shell you have Over-simplified Buyout Premiums

Lack of long-term guidance ≠ secret exit plan. The BoD may be focused on near-term execution, or may be planning further disclosures once SOFDRA’s performance is clearer. I wouldn't interpret silence as intent to sell just yet

44.5 NOW Nice comaback

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	105056	31.0¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

105056

31.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
31.5¢	29998	1

Price($)

Vol.

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31.5¢

29998

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	105056	0.310
14	575211	0.305
22	1512848	0.300
12	701504	0.295
22	893421	0.290

No.

Vol.

Price($)

105056

0.310

575211

0.305

1512848

0.300

701504

0.295

893421

0.290

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.315	29998	1
0.320	398549	2
0.325	313230	4
0.330	172449	5
0.335	480114	5

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.315

29998

0.320

398549

0.325

313230

0.330

172449

0.335

480114

(20min delay)
Last 31.5¢		Change 0.025(8.62%)		Mkt cap ! $617.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
30.0¢	32.5¢	29.5¢	$3.773M	12.14M

Current And Future Valuation 2025, page-187

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