Balearic Islands bound with wifi, and what better way to pass the time than to throw a few darts at the scripts board. Sure beats Love Actually. Although, maybe that’s what we’ll be seeing come end July? Bee farm inspired musings.
Let’s make a bold 50/50 assumption and consider the CP post is credible. Let’s also assume the 18k is cumulative new patients as at end May, assuming a celebration/sales team huddle has some time lag (post was in the first week of June). 18k also seems like an odd number to celebrate, so it was probably a celebration for end May achievements imo.
We know there was 3.2k new patients in Q1.
Per my prior estimates largely based on extrapolated web traffic data, my H1 Base Base cumulative new patients as at end May was 18,271, or about 1% off CP’s 18,000. Perhaps even lower considering their figure is likely rounded.
If we assume the Base Case forecast continues to hold true for June, we are looking in the realms of A$43M gross revenue for Q2. Bang it down to my prior Low Case of A$26M, considering a realbotsalesperson credibility sensitivity. Exceptional vs great outcomes respectively nonetheless, and both materially above my long standing A$3/sh Initial Investment Case DCF, which forecasted A$21M for Q2.
A bit of turbulence this past week in the slip stream of a few insto A380s, but forecasts are blue skies ahead. Ready the Dom for touchdown.
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