Exactly. Any advantage we have in terms of grade, mine life, strip ratio etc is offset by this big ugly capex cost. I can almost guarantee that no upcoming spod concentrator build is coming in anywhere close to $200musd for anything around 2Mtpa. PSC is suggesting a 2.4Mtpa concentrator for $160musd, and the flowsheet has all the bells and whistles, believe me. 200musd is just excessive. Which is more likely, that MLL's capex is accurate and every other spod concentrator study is off the mark by 40-50 million Usd? Or have MLL given themselves an excessive buffer for stuffups along the way?
The previous board examined ways to reduce opex, which is and was great and this needs to continue. However they did not consider the capex at all and let it just sit there. It is imo the elephant in the room, it is never discussed and will make or break the project.
The other thing that will make or break is recovery, and again, show me any other upcoming concentrator study that uses 70% recovery. They all use 80%. So again, is MLL accurate and the other 10-15 or so studies from other concentrators wrong? I recognise that the current board is prioritising improving recovery, which is fantastic, though I worry about whether this would impact capex even further.
Hoping some of these issues are clarified over the next 3-4 months.
MLL Price at posting:
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