Sorry guys, I thought I would start a new thread and re-post...

Sorry guys, I thought I would start a new thread and re-post this one to avoid mnessing up the other one, cheers

A couple of points to make

Firstly a few people have eluded to EXT been over-valued at this point on some threads I have read, a couple of simple calculations shows us a different story:

At 130 million pounds of uranium just in Rossing South and Ida Dome at market cap based on todays price ($568 million, this is what Comsec shows from today) shows a value of $4.37 per pound of uranium.

The directors have outlined that they expect the next resource statement to be between 240-250 million pounds of u. If this is the case then we will see our valuation be revised back down to $2.27 to $2.37 per pound of uranium.

Now todays spot price is US $43 which at current exchange rates is AUD $67.25. Based on this we get an in ground value of current resources at AUD $8.742 billion, our current valuation is 6.5% of the current total resource.

Based on the assumption that we will prove up 240-250 million pounds we will see a in ground resource value of AUD $16.14 to 16.81 billion. At current market cap this is a 3.37 to 3.52% of total in ground resource valuation.

Now based on the fact that this project is now seriously de-risked as an explorer status I would see very fair value as been around that 5-6% mark (conservatively).

If we prove up 240-250 million pounds we get valuations of (based on 220 million shares, not sure of exact amount including options, but close enough):

5% of in ground value we get a share price of AUD $3.66 to 3.82

6% of in ground value we get a share price of AUD $4.40 to 4.59

If for examples sake we run a valuation of 10% of in ground value we get a share price of AUD $7.34 to 7.64, BUT just remember even at a 10% value of inground resource this is a valuation of AUD $6.725 or US $4.29 per pound, leaving a lot of room for upwards movements.

So IMO with a conservative outlook we will see a nice increase to maintain fair value of the 5-6% mark and assuming we prove up the 240-250 million pounds we can expect a 40-60% increase over the coming months... assuming we don't have an offer on the table by then.